總體經濟因素對銀行保險通路新契約保費收入之影響

The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the New Written Premiums through the Bancassurance Channel

陳少榛(Chen Shao Zhen)

指導教授 ： 陳達新

國立臺北大學/商學院/國際財務金融碩士在職專班/碩士(2015年)

摘要

近年來隨著各金控紛紛併購壽險公司，使得擁有眾多營業據點的銀行通路成為各家壽險公司競爭的最主要戰場，銀行銷售保險的佣金收入，獲利屬性穩定，反觀壽險收取保費，等於具有大量吸收資金的能力，也讓金控在資金運用上可更有餘裕，創造更多獲利來源。自2009年以來銀行保險通路成為壽險業的第一大行銷通路，因此壽險業也必需要特別注意總體經濟的變動對於銀行保險通路新契約保費收入的影響。本文採用逐步迴歸分析法，研究總體經濟因素對對銀行保險新契約總保費及不同險種(壽險、年金、投資型、健康及意外)之保費收入的影響。所使用之依變數：銀行保險新契約總保費收入、銀行保險新契約(壽險、年金、投資型、健康及意外)保費收入及自變數：台股指數報酬、領先指標、CPI、CCI 消費信心、出口指數、進口指數、美元匯率、失業率、痛苦指數、二年定儲利率、M2、M1B、定期存款、儲蓄存款的樣本係自2009年7月至2014年12月止，資料頻率為月資料，共計有66個樣本數。
本論文的研究目的有二：1.分析總體經濟因素對銀行保險新契約總保費收入之影響，做為壽險公司財務管理與投資政策調整之保費收入資金運用的參考。2.分析總體經濟因素對之不同類型保險(壽險、年金、投資型、健康意外型)之新契約保費收入之影響，進而提供壽險業做出更佳的銀行保險商品類型挑選及訂價之參考。實證結果發現：1.總體經濟因素中對銀行保險新契約總保費收入呈現顯著關係的是進口指數。2.總體經濟因素中對銀行保險新契約壽險保費收入呈現顯著關係的是進口指數；對銀行保險新契約年金保費收入呈現顯著關係的有進口指數及失業率；對銀行保險新契約投資型保費收入具有顯著影響的是出口指數；對銀行保險新契約健康及意外保費收入具有顯著的有失業率、二年定儲利率及儲蓄存款。

關鍵字

總體經濟因素 ； 新契約保費收入 ； 銀行保險 ； 迴歸分析

並列摘要

Bancassurance channel has become a major channel with the acquisition of life insurance companies by Financial Holding Companies. With the advantage of bank channel, it helps the FHC attract more capital, earn more stable fee income via selling insurance and also create more source of profit. Bancassurance has become the biggest channel in the life insurance industry since 2009. Life insurance players should pay more attention on its impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the New Written Premiums.This paper adopted regression analysis to study the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the New Written Premiums through the Bancassurance Channel and different types of insurance Product( life insurance , annuities, investment link policies , health and accident ) of premium through the Bancassurance Channel. The dependent variables include: Gross New Written Premiums through the Bancassurance Channel, New Written Premiums by product type (life insurance, annuities, investment link, health and accident) through the Bancassurance Channel .The independent variables : Taiwan stock index returns, leading indicators, CPI, CCI consumer confidence , dependent on the use of variables export index , imports index , the US dollar exchange rate , unemployment , misery index , two years fixed interest rate savings , M2, M1B, time deposits, savings deposits of sample line from July 2009 to December 2014, the data frequency is monthly with a total of 66 samples .
There are 2 objectives of this paper: 1. Analysis of the impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the New Written Premiums through the Bancassurance Channel, as a reference for financial management and adjustment on the investment policy to the use of premium revenue. 2. Analysis of the impact of Macroeconomic Variables of the different type of Insurance Products( life insurance , annuities, investment link , accident and health type) , thereby providing a better reference for selecting Bancassurance products and product pricing.The empirical results show: 1.Overall Macroeconomic Variables on New Written Premiums through the Bancassurance Channel presented significant correlation is the import index . 2. The Macroeconomic Variables with significant correlation to the Life Insurance New Written Premiums is import index; Import Index and Unemployment rate show strong correlation with Annuity type products; Export Index has significant influence to Unit Link Policies; Unemployment rates, 2 year deposit rate and saving deposits are the Macroeconomic Variables which show significant correlation on Accidental & Health Product New Written Premiums.

並列關鍵字

Macroeconomic Variables ； New Written Premiums ； Bancassurance ； Regression Analysis

參考文獻

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