臺灣各區域環境顧志耐曲線假說之驗證

An Empirical Test of Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Regions in Taiwan

林冠瑛

環境顧志耐曲線 ； Environmental Kuznets Curve

臺北大學經濟學系學位論文

2016年

碩士

李叢禎

繁體中文

經濟成長與環境污染之關係一直為人們所關注的議題，而EKC相關研究即探討環境污染是否會隨著經濟成長而呈現先遞增爾後遞減之趨勢。惟過去的研究皆著重於國家尺度之研究，將國內各區域分別進行比較分析者尚為少數，臺灣EKC相關研究方面亦僅針對全國進行探討。然而許多對人體健康有直接傷害之地區性空氣污染物會受到各區域產業發展、氣候條件等地理因素影響，將其以國家尺度進行研究，僅能呈現全國平均後的結果，因此本文為深入了解各區域的差異，將臺灣依據都市及區域發展統計彙編分為北、中、南、東四大區域，分別進行EKC假說之驗證，並納入小客車數、第二級產業人口與用地面積以及降雨天數作為其他解釋變數。 本文實證結果顯示，各區域與臺灣整體之EKC結果有所差異，更證實各區域空氣污染亦受到不同因素所影響。北部、中部及東部區域實質人均所得對於SO2之影響皆不顯著，南部區域SO2與實質人均所得則呈現倒U型趨勢。以PM10之迴歸結果來看，則是北部區域PM10與實質人均所得呈現U型關係；中部區域PM10隨實質人均所得上升而遞減；南部區域PM10與實質人均所得呈現倒U型關係，符合EKC假說；東部區域實質人均所得則對PM10之影響不顯著。除實質人均所得外，亦探討其他解釋變數對於SO2與PM10之影響，估計結果顯示小客車數與第二級產業人口為顯著影響北部、中部與南部區域SO2之因素，亦為顯著影響南部區域PM10之因素，但其他解釋變數對於北部、中部區域之PM10以及東部區域之SO2則無顯著影響。東部區域PM10則顯著受到降雨天數影響。由此可知各區域若要達到空污減量之成效，需因地制宜，分別針對各區域之產業、經濟與地理特性等因素進行相關政策之擬定。

The relationship between economic growth and the environmental quality has been drawn considerable attention for the last three decades. The studies of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) aim at exploring whether the pollution would first increase with economic growth and then decrease after some turning point. A survey on the current literature shows that most of the studies of EKC are focused on the national level. Only few of them compare the differences of empirical results for EKC across different regions within a country. The same literature gap exists for the empirical studies of Taiwan. However, regional air pollutions, such as SO2 and PM10, will be impacted by the development of regional industries, weather, and other geographical factors. The studies at national levels can only show the average results for the whole country. Therefore, to understand the different patterns of EKC among regions, we collect the annual panel data of 22 counties in Taiwan during 1994 to 2014, and divide them into four regions (northern, central, southern and eastern regions of Taiwan). The EKC hypotheses are respectively testedfor the four regions. The air pollutions under investigation consist of SO2 and PM10. In addition to real income per capita, our regressions incorporate other explanatory variables such as the number of cars, the employment and land area of secondary industry, and the days of rainfall per year. Our empirical evidences show that the test results of EKC hypotheses are quite different for Taiwan and individual regions. In addition, regional air pollutions are influenced by different factors. Concerning the impact of real income per capita on SO2, it is insignificant in the northern, central and eastern regions. However, an inverted U relationship exists between real income per capita and SO2 in the southern region. The test results for PM10 are quite different across regions. There is a U shape relationship between real income per capita and PM10 in the northern region. In the central region, PM10 decreases as the real income per capita increases. In the southern region, it shows an inverted U shape relationship, suggesting validity of EKC hypothesis. Finally, the impact of real income per capita on PM10 is insignificant in the eastern region. In addition to real income per capita, we also investigate the impacts of the other explanatory variables on SO2 and PM10. The results show that the number of cars and employment of secondary industry have significant impacts on SO2 in the northern, central, and southern regions. Moreover, the number of cars and employment of secondary industry are also significant factors affecting PM10 in southern region. However, these explanatory variables are insignificant to PM10 in the northern and central regions, and to SO2 in the eastern region. The days of rainfall per year are only significant in the regression of PM10 in the eastern region. In conclusion, we suggest that policies for air pollutions abatement should be designed according to each region’s characteristic such as economic development, industrial development and geographical factors.

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