她還不婚？臺灣女性維持單身的社會學分析

DOES SHE MAEEIAGE YET ？ THE SOCIOLOGY ANALYSIS OF TAIWAN WOMEN’S SINGLEHOOD

張祐慈(Yu-Tzu Chang)

指導教授 ： 楊文山

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/社會學系/碩士(2009年)

摘要

因有感於台灣現今社會女性結婚年齡之延遲，持續增長單身時間，對於整體社會影響巨大，影響生育率的降低、社會結構和家庭組織的不同。本文以華人家庭動態資料庫（Panel Study of Family Dynamics ，簡稱 PSFD）中出生在民國35-65年出生者為實證樣本，以ID串連RI1999 、RI2000、 RI2003三個主樣本至2006年之婚姻狀態，持續觀察兩性在20歲至40歲其間踏入婚姻與否，並以事件史分析法（Event History Analysis）探究每一年齡未踏入婚姻的機率與踏入婚姻的機率，並以控制每一年齡踏入婚姻的機會，依據文獻之探討與理論深究，再加入東方特有的特質：原生家庭對於女性踏入婚姻與否的影響，進而比較同一因素對於兩性的影響程度，以深入瞭解影響男性與女性結婚與否之因素。
以生命表格分析法中，發現大學/專科與碩士以上教育程度者，以25歲為分割點。25歲以後大學/專科教育程度者進入婚姻機會，多維持在1/7的機率；碩士以上學歷者則在34歲以後才有兩高峰。且在本實證樣本中碩士學位者則無一位拒絕婚姻，顯示台灣或許如果美國有教育轉折點（Educational Crossover）的出現，高教育程度者並非不重視家庭與婚姻，延遲並不表是拒絕婚姻。且發現男性在觀察初期踏入婚姻的態度較為不積極，而女性在26歲後結婚機會大幅縮減；在邏輯迴歸分析中發現女性拒絕婚姻的趨勢是較晚世代才有的現象，受父親的種族、居住地、本身的教育程度以及和父母感情影響尤其顯著。

關鍵字

事件史分析法 ； 單身 ； 女性 ； 延遲婚姻

並列摘要

The mean age at marriage for both men and women has risen steadily and steeply in Taiwan in the past several decades. We use the Taiwan Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) dataset collected by the Program for the study of Family in Chinese societies at Academia Sinica to investigate the time transit to and determinants of marriage for Taiwanese women. This dataset are composed of three cohorts, which including: (1) 1953-1964, (2) 1935-1954, and (3) 1964-1976. The data employed in the thesis in the analyses is retrieved from those three cohorts linked by each individual ID number up to the 2006 study wave to determine their marital status. The life table technique is employed to identify the risk of marriage and being single for both sexes starting 20 to 40 year of age. Then the Discrete Event History statistical model is utilized to study factors affecting individual transit from singlehood to marriage. In addition, factors related to Chinese family values including family-of-origin effects are also incorporated in the study. The empirical results demonstrate the having a college degree and above will delay marriage until 25 years of age. Having an advance university degree, such as master, or above will even delay marriage further to 34 years of age. Results yielded from logistic regression model show that women born in late birth cohort, for example, the 1964-1976 birth cohorts, ethnicity of father, place of residence, education level, and attachment to one’s parents, all have a negative effect on female transit to marriage. Although Taiwanese men and women have a tendency to delay their transit to marriage to even further age in the recent cohort, the analyses indicate none of them rejects the institution of marriage. One may conclude from analyses that delay marriage does not equate to rejection of institution of marriage in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan ； Female ； Transit to Marriage ； Discrete Event History Model

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