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供應鏈風險、長鞭效應、精實與績效關係之研究

A Research into the Relationship between Risk, Bullwhip Effect, Lean and Performance in Supply Chain System

指導教授 : 張洝源
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摘要


近年來,各產業供應鏈之管理日益普及,而供應鏈存在著風險與長鞭效應,影響著存貨及訂單的正確與穩定性,如果企業不加以重視容易造成庫存過多或供應中斷的危險,也對供應鏈管理的效率與績效產生負面之影響。在市場快速變化及不可預知風險環境下,企業為了能在全球競爭環境下生存,必須要有相對應的供應鏈策略。本研究之目的在於探討風險、長鞭效應在供應鏈管理中產生的影響,並分析精實是否對供應鏈管理產生效益。藉由供應鏈風險、長鞭效應、精實以及績效關係,進行解析精實是否對於風險、長鞭效應與績效之間產生負面影響有調節、緩和之作用。本研究以台灣前500大企業為實證研究對象,探討台灣製造業供應鏈風險、長鞭效應、精實與績效之相互關係。 本研究先藉由文獻收集與專家訪談整理彙整造成風險、長鞭效應的因素以及精實供應鏈與企業經營績效因素,並利用文獻中學者論點篩選相關聯之因素,評估風險、長鞭效應因素對於企業績效影響的重要性程度,以及因素間的相互影響關係,進而有效管理這些因素對於供應鏈風險、長鞭效應產生之衝擊。首先,藉由模糊德爾菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method, FDM)篩選風險、長鞭效應、精實與績效等因素,並使用偏最小平方法(Partial Least Squares, PLS)的結構方程模式(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM)建立其構面與因素間的關係進行因素分析,並驗證本研究十大假設是否成立。 藉由PLS-SEM模型之驗證,本研究結論得到七項假設成立:精實對風險有顯著的負面影響;精實對長鞭效應有顯著的負面影響;精實對績效有顯著的正面影響;風險對長鞭效應有顯著的正面影響;風險對績效有顯著的負面影響;長鞭效應對績效有顯著的負面影響;風險結合長鞭效應對績效有顯著的負面增加影響;另外,精實結合風險對長鞭效應之緩和效果、精實結合風險對績效影響之調節效果、精實結合長鞭效應對績效之調節效果之檢定,結果顯示不具顯著性而不成立。

並列摘要


In recent years, supply chain management is increasingly prevalent across all industries. However, supply chain risks and the bullwhip effect pose a serious threat to the accuracy of inventory and the stability of orders. If not properly addressed, they may cause excess inventory or supply chain disruptions, which are detrimental to the efficiency and performance of supply chain management. As the market is highly volatile and involves unpredictable risks, businesses need to have targeted supply chain strategies so as to survive global competitions. The goal of this study is to investigate the influences of risks and the bullwhip effect on supply chains and also analyze the benefits of lean practices in supply chain management. By investigating the relationship among supply chain risks, the bullwhip effect, lean, and performance, this study will further examine whether lean moderates or mitigates the negative effects of risks and the bullwhip effect on performance. The sample used for this study of the relationship among supply chain risks, the bullwhip effect, lean, and performance consists of the top 500 firms in Taiwan’s manufacturing industry. In this study, factors causing supply chain risks and the bullwhip effect as well as the factors affecting lean and performance are first explored through literature review and interview with experts. In order to effectively manage these factors in supply chain management, the importance of each of these factors for business performance and the correlations among them must be evaluated. Therefore, Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) is first applied to identify risks and the important factors of the bullwhip effect, lean, and performance. Later, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) is used to model the relationship between factors and dimensions and validate the proposed hypotheses. The PLS-SEM results support seven of the proposed hypotheses: lean has a significant negative effect on risks; lean has a significant negative effect on the bullwhip effect; lean has a significant positive effect on performance; risks have a significant positive effect on the bullwhip effect; risks have a significant negative effect on performance; the bullwhip effect has a significant negative effect on performance; risks significantly reinforce the negative relationship between the bullwhip effect and performance. Besides, the mitigating effect of lean on the relationship between risks and the bullwhip effect, the moderating effect of lean on the relationship between risks and performance, and the moderating effect of lean on the relationship between the bullwhip effect and performance are not significant and thus unsupported.

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


鐘文宏(2017)。因應供應鏈中斷風險之關鍵韌性因素研究:整合模式之應用〔碩士論文,國立虎尾科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0028-3107201716523200

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