以系統動力模式分析缺水時期用戶水塔儲水效益之研究

The study of Applying System Dynamics Model to Analyze Household Water Towers Storage in Water Shortage

王偉雄(Wei-hsiung Wang)

指導教授 ： 吳瑞賢

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

近年來大桃園地區用水需求逐年遞增，原有的自來水供水系統已面臨供需飽和的問題，為滿足用戶端的用水需求，開發新的水源是可以考慮的方案。而自來水給水廠在無法增加原水處理容量的情況下，必須向其他供水區請調支援供水，但是越依賴支援供水代表該區域的缺水危機越高。因此在當前供水量無法增加的條件下，除了給水廠供水要更有效率之外，民眾應當意識到自行儲水以備緊急使用。
本研究應用系統動力學的概念，建構大桃園地區的自來水供水模型，模擬居家水塔儲水的過程，期望了解在供水機制不斷改變下對於桃園地區用戶水塔蓄水的影響。將2005~2007年的給水廠日出水量紀錄作為輸入資料來模擬，結果顯示在供水人口增加之下，各地區水塔儲水量皆有上升趨勢，表示地區配水不只滿足民生用水，也能滿足水塔蓄水。藉由隨機模擬中斷供水的方式，來推估水塔的可能水量與用戶的可能用水時限，在穩定的供水條件下，居家水塔儲水大約都有1天的用水時限。
並進一步探討不同的供水條件與水塔蓄水之間的關係，模型設定了三種的蓄水行為，去分析各種蓄水行為在不同的供水方式下水塔蓄水量的變化。由結果可以得知，在發生水源短缺的事件之後，前端用戶增加蓄水量會直接造成後端蓄水量減少，甚至無法蓄水；但若是前端用戶控制蓄水量在合適範圍，對於連日內缺水戶的成長幅度有抑制效應，同時每缺水戶負擔缺水量也會降低。

關鍵字

系統動力學、水塔蓄水、用水時限

並列摘要

In recent years, the water demand of Taoyuan increased year by year. Designed tap water supply system faces the problem that water demand is close to water supply gradually. To meet the water demand of consumers, exploitation of new water resources is practicable. Without expanding the amount of untreated water, regional tap water system gets sustained water from other water supply plants. But more dependency of sustained water represents more dangerous while water shortage happens in Taoyuan. In the condition of not able to increase water supply, but except supply water more efficiently, consumers are conscious of storing water for emergency.
This study uses System Dynamics to develop a tap water supply model in Taoyuan and simulates the process of storing water by household water towers. According to this study, we hope to understand the influence of stored water in Taoyuan because the modes of water supply are changing. By using daily water output from 2005 to 2007, simulation results shows that the storage of household water towers in Taoyuan presents a raise trend while the population is increasing. It means that regional water supply not only meets daily water use but also needs to supply extra water to store. The model evaluates the probable storage of household water towers and probable each house’s time of water consumption by randomly breaking off water supply. The storage of water towers can support the water consumption of each house about one day in almost hometowns while water supply is stable.
Moreover, this study discusses the relationship between distributed water and stored water in different supply conditions. The model defines three types of water storing behavior and analyzes the varieties of storage in different supply condition. From the results of analysis, while water shortage happens, the consumers located in the upper pipelines tend to increase water towers storage directly causes the storage of the consumers located in the lower pipelines reduction, even no water for storing. But if the consumers located in the upper pipelines control added storage in applicable range, it will restrain the range of expansion of houses in water shortage for days and the quantity of water shortage which consumers burden with will be reduced.

並列關鍵字

Time of water consumption ； Water tower storage ； System Dynamics

參考文獻

1.石憲勳(2003)，「桃竹地區工業用水供需之研究」，中原大學土木工程學系碩士論文。

17.蔡耀逸(2007)，「桃園地區短期缺水供需策略之研究」，國立中央大學土木工程學系碩士論文。

8.陳世偉(2002)，「區域多元化水資源調配之研究」，國立中央大學土木工程學系博士論文。

11.黃逸文(2005)，「桃園地區各標的用水分析」，中原大學土木工程學系碩士論文。

23.B. Ulanicki a ; J. Kahler; and H. See “Dynamic Optimization Approach for Solving an Optimal Scheduling Problem in Water Distribution Systems”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 133, No. 1, January 1, 2007.