投資人情緒與自願性財務預測

Investor Sentiment and Voluntary Disclosures Financial Forecasts

陳之浩(Jhih-hao Chen)

指導教授 ： 曹壽民

國立中央大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

本研究以Bergman ＆ Roychowdhury之研究為基礎，探討投資人情緒與我國公司當局自願性財務預測之間的關係。我國於2005年由強制性財務預測制度改制為自願性財務預測制度，目前已推行將近十年。然而過去我國文獻對於自願性財務預測之研究主要是探討影響自願性財務預測之因素與探討自願性財務預測之精準度。本研究試圖將行為財務學領域之投資人情緒與自願性財務預測作一連結，探討投資情緒的變動是否會影響公司當局發布財務預測的意願。並進一步將分析師所作之財務預測納入比較，試圖了解公司發佈財務預測的背後動機。
　　經由實證結果發現，投資人情緒越低，則公司發佈自願性財務預測之意願亦會越低，兩者呈現顯著正相關。而將分析師所做財務預測納入比較後，發現比分析師更樂觀或更悲觀之財務預測並不會因投資人情緒變動而有所差異。
　　本研究於最後更將公司當局當年度財務報表與當年度自願性財務預測做比較，發現投資人情緒越低，公司發佈樂觀的自願性財務預測的意願會越高。

關鍵字

投資人情緒 ； 消費者信心指數 ； 自願性財務預測

並列摘要

This study is based on Bergman & Roychowdhury’s reserch and explore the relationship between investor sentiment and domestic firm’s voluntary financial forecasts. In 2005, Taiwan’s financial earnings forecast system changing form mandatory financial earnings forecast to voluntary financial earnings forecast. Until now, it has been almost ten years. In the past, the literature about voluntary financial forecasts almost discuss about investigating the factor which can affect company disclosing financial forecasts and accuracy of voluntary financial forecasts. In this study, we try to connect investor sentiment and voluntary financial forecasts, and then we investigate how investor sentiment affect companies’ willing to disclose their financial forecasts. Finally, we compare the analysts’ financial forecasts and try to find out why companies disclosing their financial forecasts.
Our empirical results show that the lower the investor sentiment, the company’s willingness which issue their voluntary financial forecasts will be lower, both of which showed a significant positive correlation. And after compared with analysts’ forecasts, we can’t find any different between more optimistic and more pessimistic financial forecasts from companies.
Finally, this study compared company's annual financial statements and voluntary financial forecasts and we found that the lower the investor sentiment, the company will be more willing to issue optimistic financial forecasts.

並列關鍵字

investor sentiment ； consumer confidence index ； voluntary financial forecast

參考文獻

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