建立以層級分析法為基礎的洪災計畫評估模型- 以印尼雅加達為例

Developing an AHP-based model for evaluating mitigation programs for flood disaster: Case study in Indonesia

潘莎莉(Dharwati Pratama Sari)

指導教授 ： 王翰翔

國立中央大學/工學院/營建管理研究所/碩士(2014年)

摘要

幾個世紀以來，洪災已在世界各地造成許多人命及財產的損失。特別在印尼雅加達，嚴重的洪災損失後均會採取多項的重建方案治理洪災所造成的影響，然而根據近年來於災後損失評估報告顯示，若要提升未來印尼人民的生活品質，避免災情不斷重覆上演，目前仍欠缺更好的洪災管理方式。
本研究主要研析洪水減災計畫，探討印尼雅加達在洪災後於修復及重建計畫的困難點與其相關議題，並比較目前其他各國已施行過的減災方案，建立一套模組衡量各國的減災計畫，以設計適合於雅加達的減災計畫。為了建立適合於雅加達洪災應變的方案評估模組(Program Evaluation Model, PEM)，本研究以層級分析法( Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)為分析工具，透過問卷訪談各領域專家、文獻回顧與收集公眾意見等方式，定義洪災的主要影響因子。其中，建立之方案評估模組包含二次調查問卷與適合於雅加達減災替代計畫的權重指標，並參考了其他國家(台灣、日本、荷蘭、美國及英國)的計畫設計而成。
本研究成果主要以層級分析法探討13個影響印尼雅加達洪災管理的主要因子，並透過方案評估模組利用主要影響因子評估各國所採用的減災方案，以解決多重方案選擇的問題。最後，所擇取前五名的方案，均受專家一致認同適合應用於印尼雅加達。

關鍵字

層級分析法 ； 洪水 ； 雅加達 ； 減災 ； 災後重建

並列摘要

Throughout the centuries flood disasters have taken a loss of human lives property damage, and economic impacts all over the world. In Jakarta, Indonesia, various alternatives of strategies after flood disasters have been implemented during the past reconstruction project due the high severe damage losses. Unfortunately the programs just issues, based on the damage and losses assessment after recent disasters happened, it indicated the necessity of better flood disaster management for future life’s people in Indonesia.
This study aims to explore the difficulties and relevant issues in Jakarta, Indonesia after flood disaster, to have a model that can be used to evaluate different mitigation programs, and to design new mitigation programs from other countries which can be suitable for Jakarta, Indonesia. The research focused on flood disaster mitigation program and used as some existing programs from other countries for comparison to propose an appropriate design of mitigation and planned. The approaches use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a decision analysis tools, in order to develop a Program Evaluation Model (PEM) for flood disaster management for Jakarta. In addition, data will gathered through questionnaire survey with agency/experts, literature review, and public opinion collection, based on the survey conducted, the major factors influencing flood disaster will be determined. The PEM includes second survey questionnaire and computing of the weights is an approach of design to alternatives of mitigation program in Jakarta, Indonesia. The PEM’s concept is concerned with the selecting the major factors which influence the management of flood disasters in Jakarta, Indonesia and use the identified factors to evaluate different flood mitigation program from other countries based on Analytical Hierarchy Process. The model designed is adopting the programs from other country (Taiwan, Japan, Netherlands, United States, and United Kingdom).
The result of this research are to explore the 13 sub-criteria as relevant issues in Jakarta, Indonesia. The PEM was implemented for solving the complicated selection problem. The PEM’s concept is concerned with selecting the major factors which influence the management of flood disasters in Jakarta, Indonesia and use the identified factors to evaluate different flood mitigation programs from other countries based on AHP. Five programs are already identified, The evaluation was conducted by consulting from experts. The experts agree the top five rank programs are suitable to be implemented in Jakarta, Indonesia.

並列關鍵字

AHP ； Flood ； Jakarta ； Mitigation ； Post-disaster reconstruction

參考文獻

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