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  • 學位論文

從現實主義看中美南海競逐

Examing the CHINA-US competition in the south China sea from Realism

指導教授 : 林泰和
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摘要


摘要 南海控制著南海通往太平洋與印度洋間之國際重要海上商道,擔負著世界上商運之一半、3分之1石油進口及3分之2液化天然氣的運輸重任。 近年來,南海因領土主權、海洋劃界、漁業糾紛、填海造陸、國際仲裁問題使得南海問題愈來愈棘手,幾乎變成火藥庫,因多方國家經濟利益複雜交錯之牽扯及美國積極參與下,南海遂成為亞太地區的熱點,因此探討南海爭端及美、中兩大國在南海區域的互動為本論文的研究動機。 美國與中國是當今世界上最大的兩個經濟體及軍事力量。鑑於美國2009年以來「向亞太再平衡」(rebalancing to Asia-Pacific)戰略與中國在南海的「核心利益」存在結構性矛盾和潛在衝突,兩國對於南海的相關政策及兩國之間的互動關係,將型塑此區域的安全環境及區域的政治發展,因此,本文之研究目的將以現實主義與權力平衡理論來探討南海爭端中中國與美國的軍事、外交政策以及其互動過程,是否符合現實主義之基本主張。 研究發現,中國、美國及南海周邊國家如同現實主義所述及國家於自助的環境、無政府狀態下將國家安全、生存列為最高的原則,競相加強軍備以建構防衛武力,南海周邊國家更如同權力平衡理論所述為生存而極大化安全目標,選擇制衡而非扈從,以延續其國家的生存。而美、中兩國在南海這個重大國際戰略議題上意見相左,兩國所展開的外交與軍事互動與對抗,仍難以在相互疑慮的安全議題中尋求共識與合作,說明了美、中之間在南海的互動是符合現實主義的,依目前的形勢,南海日益軍事化,增加擦槍走火的機會,不排除有發生局部戰爭的可能性。 關鍵字:向亞太再平衡、現實主義、權力平衡

並列摘要


Abstract South China Sea control important international maritime trade route between the South China Sea to the Pacific and Indian Ocean,charged with the task of transport half of the world's merchant shipping, one third of oil and two third of liquefied natural gas.imports.In recent years, because of the South China Sea territorial sovereignty and maritime delimitation, fishing disputes, land reclamation, international arbitration so that the South China Sea issue getting sticky, almost become a powder keg, Due to the multi-national economic interests involved and the complexity of the interleaved between US active participation of the South China Sea became a hot Asia-Pacific region, and therefore the motivation to explore the South China Sea dispute and research of US-China in the South China Sea region to interact with the present paper. The United States and China are the world's two largest economies and military forces. In view of the United States since 2009, " rebalancing to Asia-Pacific " strategy and "core interest" of China in the South China Sea there is a structural contradictions and potential conflicts. South China Sea between the two countries for policy and interaction between the two countries, will shape the political development and regional security environment of this region, The purpose of this research will be realistic and to explore the theory of the balance of power between China and the US military, foreign policy and their interaction in the South China Sea disputes, compliance with the basic proposition of realism. The study found that China,United States and the South China Sea neighboring countries are as realism describing“the countries like in self-help environment, anarchy national security, survival as the highest principle, strengthen the arms race to construct defense force. South China Sea neighboring countries more as the balance of power theory for survival maximize security objectives, checks and balances rather than choose squire to continue its national survival”.The major international strategic issues disagreement between the United States, and China in the South China Sea ,the two countries to expand diplomatic and military interaction and confrontation, is still difficult to seek consensus and cooperation on security issues of mutual concern in. Describes the interaction between the United States, in the South China Sea is in line with realism, according to the current situation, the growing militarization of the South China Sea, increasing the chance of accidental discharge, do not rule out the possibility of local wars. Key words:rebalancing to Asia-Pacific,Realism,Balance of power theory.

參考文獻


楊仕樂,〈解析中共觀點的美國亞太「再平衡」策略,《國防雜
黃一哲,美「中」在南海海域競逐之研究,國防雜誌 第二十
Account ofAmerica’s Asia Strategy (Washington, D.C.:
陳鴻瑜(2011),〈美國、中國和東協三方在南海之角力戰〉,遠景基金會季刊第12卷第1期,頁43-80。
譚偉恩,權力平衡理論之研究:現實主義的觀點,國際關係學

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