距離加權平均法與時間序列模型於醫療衛材使用量預測之應用

由於健保制度的轉變，導致增加了醫療機構的成本壓力，若要達到永續經營的目的，內部成本控管顯得重要，而醫院營運成本中資材成本約占總成本的25%至45%，故資材成本管控為醫院永續經營的重要目標。本研究以臺灣某區域教學醫院之衛材資料庫作為樣本，由於數據中出現多個離群值，而離群值的存在會影響估計數，因此為了降低離群值對數據的影響，本研究提出以距離為權重之概念的距離加權平均法，並結合自我迴歸整合移動平均模型，預測各疾病或護理站內每項衛材之未來需求量。本研究分別以疾病別或護理站別進行數值的修正，並區分距離加權法之修正數值與原始數據之預測資料，再進行預測值的比較。結果顯示本研究所提出之距離加權平均法預測結果較佳。此研究成果可提供未來預測之參考，並可降低庫存過多或短缺的情形。

關鍵字

醫療衛材；距離加權平均法；時間序列

並列摘要

Due to the policy change of the national health insurance, the increased cost gave pressure to all medical institutions. The material cost accounts for 25% to 45% of the total operating budget, thus the control of material costs would be the key to the sustainable operation of hospitals. This study uses the database of medical materials provided by a regional teaching hospital. However, the database shows lots of outliers which would affect the accuracy. In order to reduce the effects from the outliers, this study proposed a Distance Weight Average Method (DWAM) that based on the idea of distance and weight and combined with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the demand of medical materials from each diseases or nursing stations. The data was corrected by the number provided by diseases or nursing stations, and the prediction compared DWAM result with original data result. The study result shows that the DWAM is better. The results are available for the reference of future forecast and can help reduce excess or short inventory.

並列關鍵字

Medical Materials ； Distance Weight Average Method ； Time Series

參考文獻

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距離加權平均法與時間序列模型於醫療衛材使用量預測之應用

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