灰預測應用於已婚女性就業之研究

A research on labor force of married women using grey prediction model

陳萱蓁(Shiuan-Jen Chen)

指導教授 ： 陳俊益

義守大學/管理學院/工業管理學系/碩士(2016年)

摘要

基於台灣社會型態的改變，女性參與就業機會增加、及家庭經濟需求、兩性觀念的改變、婦女教育程度的提升、女性經濟獨立、以及雙薪家庭結構的變化等因素，促使大量的女性投入勞動市場。但是多數人並未因為已婚女性外出就業，而改變對她們在家庭中所扮演的角色期望。已婚女性在面臨工作角色與所應扮演家庭照顧者，或母職角色之間的衝突，一旦無法兼顧多重角色時，這些原有工作之已婚女性可能需要面對暫時退出或者直接離開勞動市場之抉擇。
本研究以行政院主計處公告1993年至2013年間15歲至64歲已婚女性就業之情形為現有數據基礎，輔以灰色預測理論來探討，預測2016年至2028年間15歲至64歲已婚女性有工作者及無工作者人數的變化。預測結果顯示已婚女性婚後持續工作且未曾離開職場人數未來12年將持續上升;已婚女性婚後持續工作但中途可能離開職場人數未來12年將持續上升;已婚女性婚前沒有工作，婚後會重新進入職場未來12年人數將持續上升；已婚女性因為結婚而離職，但日後有再重新找尋工作未來人數會逐年下降；已婚女性因為生育而離職，但日後有再重新找尋工作未來人數會逐年下降。
獲得上述結果後，以開放式問卷訪問27位15歲至64歲已婚女性投入或離開勞動市場的原因，歸納影響已婚婦女持續就業的因素有家庭經濟的壓力、職場主管與同事間相處融洽，家人協助料理家務及照顧小孩讓已婚女性能在工作上無後顧之憂。相對的，影響已婚女性婚後離開職場的原因不遑年幼小孩無人照料，家人希望多一份收支來源及家人期待已婚婦女將更多重心放置於家庭。希冀此研究結果能提供未來政府施政及人力管理之參考。

關鍵字

灰色預測 ； 女性就業 ； 勞動市場 ； 職業婦女

並列摘要

Due to the facts that societal atmosphere is shifting, women's employment opportunities are increasing, household needs are demanding, the concepts of gender issue are fluctuating, women's education levels are elevating, and women's economic independent status is arising, and the numbers of dual-earner family are boosting as well as other factors that may be, enormous amount of women have prompted and entered into the labor market. Yet, the majority would not lower the expectations on married women out of their families’ role just because they are employed. Often married women would still need to face the dilemma between works and families. It is possible to tackle the conflicts between the roles in jobs and as a family caregiver or as a mother, or being not able to take into account as the multiple roles, or find the balance between work and family, one might obligate to be retiring from the labor market temporarily.
The study attempted to apply grey theory exploring the ages between 15-and-64- year-old, employed married women, and resulted a forecast of employed versus non-employed, within the same age group during 2016 and 2028. The study indicated that, within the 12 years’ period, married women stay and never leave the workplace would continue to rise; married women stay but might leave the workplace in the middle of career would continue to rise; married women did not work before marriage but would enter the job market also continue to rise. The study also indicated that, in the same period, married women might leave the workplace because of marriage, then come back to the labor market for a new job would be declining; married women might leave the workplace because of maternity, then come back to the labor market for a new job would also be declining.
It is to hope that the study could provide a reference for researchers and government on similar study on married women relating to the labor market and policy. An open-ended questionnaire was applied on the age group as mentioned above so to yield a result of whether they would remain in the workplaces. It is found that the reasons of married women would stay in labor forces are from family economic pressure, the atmosphere between supervisor and colleagues in the workplaces, and assistances on housework and childcare via family help. On the other hand, the study found that reasons of married women withdrew from labor market was because young children left unattended, and the expectation of focusing more on the family.

並列關鍵字

Grey forecasting ； women employment ； labor participation ； career women

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