本研究主要探討銀行對於使用匯率金額較大且次數較頻繁的進出口商提出的匯率商品,從其商品中的指標判斷是否跟未來的匯率走勢有關連,進而提供進出口商對於將來匯率判斷的依據。首先先介紹目前銀行較為熱門的三種商品,分析幣轉點(K)以及出場點(KO)代表的意義,以及匯率商品的運作,再跟未來的匯率走勢做連結,透過圖形可以看出彼此之間有高度連動,而本研究針對目前本國貿易量最大的美元兌換日幣、歐元,以及許多投資者偏好的澳幣做分析,看出出場點通常都是匯率為來走勢的先行指標。
The thesis observes the exchange rate commodity that banks offer to somebody who trade numerous and often, decide that if there are any connect between the norm of the exchange rate and the tendency, and then offer the businessman a basis to estimate the exchange rate in the future. We introduce three popular goods, analysis the means of specific currency exchange point (K point) and finish contract point (KO point), and how the exchange rate play, then connect to the exchange in the future, we can see the extremely correlation between these, and this thesis observes Japanese yen、Euro、Australian dollar, no matter which specific currency, finish contract point is the index of the exchange in the future.
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