運用灰色理論於飛機可靠度瞬間失效預測之研究

The Application of Grey System Theory to Forecast the Aircrafts Reliability Instantaneous Failure Rate

陳柔諺(Jou-yen Chen)

指導教授 ： 龔昶元

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/企業管理系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

對現代戰機而言，武器系統裝備之可靠度，可作為工程修改、修護品質控管、修護能量、檢查時距、修護計畫、技勤訓練之調整、器材預判、作戰任務支援等後勤管理作業精進檢討之參考依據；本研究利用灰色理論GM(1,1)模型預測戰機可靠度瞬間失效情況，其結果發現：

一、GM(1,1)模型其精確度均於90%以上，驗證灰色理論確實可用於數據少、未具常態分佈之戰機可靠度預測。
二、經由預測得知，三型機可靠度瞬間失效 值預測趨勢為遞減，意即平均失效間隔時間(MTBF值)遞增，此表示接機後人員修護能力及器材可靠度均呈現穩定現象。

關鍵字

可靠度瞬間失效 ； GM(1 ； λ值 ； 1)模型

並列摘要

For modern air fighters, the reliability of weapon systems is a useful reference for improvement and modification of logistics managements, such as engineering modification,maintenance quality control, maintenance capability, inspection intervals, maintenance schemes,adjustment of technical training program, prediction of equipment and material requirement,and operation mission support. By using Grey Theroy GM(1,1)model, the study can predict the instantaneous failure of fighter reliability. The results are as follows,
The accuracy of GM(1,1) model is all over 90 %, verifying that GM(1,1) can indeed be used for reliability prediction of fighters, which is with less figure data and non normal distribution.
With prediction, the instantaneous failure value on three models of fighters is decreasing, mean that the mean time between failures(MTBF) value is increasing.It indicates that after receiving aircrafts, the maintenance ability of technicians and the reliability of equipment and materials are in a stable state.

並列關鍵字

instantaneous failure ； GM (1 ； 1) model

參考文獻

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