解析重大經濟數據對國防支出之影響-以台灣及南韓為例

Analysis of Major Economic Statistics on Defense Expenditure–Taking Taiwan and South Korea as Examples

楊浩忠(Hao-Chung Yang)

指導教授 ： 陳建宏 ； 張阜民

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

本研究以台灣及南韓為例，探討重大經濟指標數據，如經濟成長率、平均國民所得年增率、人口年增率、消費者物價指數年增率、匯率變動率、失業率年增率等，對國防支出之影響。我們使用相關分析與多元線性迴歸等統計方法分析，藉以尋求我國國防支出及施政計畫可改進之方向。
研究結果顯示，台灣平均國民所得年增率及消費者物價指數年增率與國防支出呈現正向關係，經濟成長率及匯率變動率與國防支出呈現反向關係。南韓匯率變動率與國防支出呈現正向關係，平均國民所得年增率及失業率年增率與國防支出呈現反向關係。台灣國防支出受限於政策及社會福利等預算排擠，未能隨經濟成長而增加。雖已考量國民所得及物價成長逐年增編國防預算，但仍因過度依賴對美國武器採購，使得匯率變動率與國防支出呈現反向關係。另外，觀察南韓國防支出與失業率年增率呈現反向關係，得知該國發展國防自主已卓有成效。
本研究主要結論為：（1）台灣應改變現行政策，於經濟成長時適度增加國防支出。（2）台灣應持續於編列預算時，考量國民所得及物價成長等因素。（3）台灣可藉由效法南韓國防自主，有效運用民間工業與技術能量。

關鍵字

多元線性迴歸模型 ； 判定係數 ； 相關分析 ； 國防支出 ； 經濟成長

並列摘要

This study took Taiwan and South Korea for examples to investigate the effects of some vital economic indexes, such as rate of economic growth, annual growth rate in per capita GNP, annual growth rate of population, annual growth rate of CPI, fluctuation rate of exchange, and annual growth rate of unemployment, on the defense expenditure. The correlation analysis and multi-linear regression model were adopted in this study to look for the direction of improvement for our national defense expenditure and policy implementation.
The research results showed there was positive relation between the annual growth rate in per capita GNP, the annual growth rate of CPI, and the defense expenditure in Taiwan; however, there was negative relation between the rate of economic growth, the fluctuation rate of exchange, and the defense expenditure. For the South Korea part, there was positive relation between the fluctuation rate of exchange and defense expenditure; in contrast, there was negative relation between the annual growth rate in per capita GNP, the annual growth rate of unemployment, and the defense expenditure. Taiwan’s defense expenditure was limited and squeezed by the government policies and social welfare so it could not have been increased along with the economic growth. The national income and the price growth have been taken into consideration to raise the defense budget; however, we are still too dependent on America for military purchase to make the negative relation between the fluctuation rate of exchange and the defense expenditure. In addition, by observing the negative relation between South Korea’s defense expenditure and the annual growth rate of unemployment, we could know that their development in defense autonomy works and runs well.
The research conclusions are listed as below. They are:
I.Taiwan government should change the present policy and increase defense expenditure as the economy grows;
II.Taiwan government should always take the national income and price growth into consideration when they budget for policies; and
III.Taiwan government could learn from South Korea’s defense autonomy and use the industrial power and technologies from our private departments.

並列關鍵字

Multi-linear regression model ； Coefficient of determination ； Economic growth ； Defense expenditure ； Correlation analysis

參考文獻

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