外國旅客對台灣國際觀光旅館需求之研究

A Study of the Accommodation Demand of International Tourist Hotels for Foreign Tourists in Taiwan

廖予綸(liao yü kuan)

指導教授 ： 林銘昌

亞洲大學/管理學院/休閒與遊憩管理學系碩士班/碩士(2007年)

摘要

本研究之研究目的如下：(1)建構外國旅客住宿國際觀光旅館之需求體系。(2)估計外國旅客對國際觀光旅館之價格彈性。(3)瞭解季節變動因素及外在衝擊因素對來台旅客住宿國際觀光旅館之影響。
根據需求理論，假設市場存在理性消費者，以追求效用極大為前提，在一定的價格水準、預算限制之下，選擇出最佳的消費組合。需求體系內之個別產品需求量，同時受到其他所有產品價格及支出之影響，若消費者欲增加某一地區的住宿消費，必然連帶影響其他地區之住宿需求。
本研究以西元1999 年至2006 年間來台旅客資料，將全台分為五大地區，建立外國旅客對台灣國際觀光旅館住宿需求體系之實證模型。以不直接設定效用函數之方式，透過一階微分近似法(first-order differential approximation) 導出固定彈性需求體系(constant flexibility demand system)，並於需求體系中加入季節變動及外在衝擊變數，採用似乎無關聯迴歸法(seeming unrelated regression)估計各項參數。將上述所得之結果與未加入季節變動及外在衝擊變數之需求體系， 透過殘差均方根(RMSE ：Root-Mean-Square-Error)進行模型模擬能力之比較。結果顯示、加入季節變動及外在衝擊變數之需求體系對資料的配適效果為佳，即，外國旅客來台住宿國際觀光旅館需求體系顯著存在季節性差異及受外在衝擊影響。

關鍵字

固定彈性需求體系 ； 國際觀光旅館 ； 住宿需求

並列摘要

The objectives of this study are as follow: (1) Construct a foreign tourist accommodation demand system for international hotels in Taiwan. (2) Estimate price elasticity of foreign tourists to international hotels in Taiwan. (3) Comprehend the effects of seasonal changes and other external factors impacting foreign tourists who stay at international hotels in Taiwan.
According to the demand theory and assuming rational consumers exist in the marketplace, this research employs the most effective premise of establishing a standard price level under a particular budget limit so that the best consumption combination can be found. Individual products’ demand levels within the demand system are affected by all other product prices and expenditures. If the consumer wishes to increase the accommodation consumption in one location, then the consumer’s accommodation needs in other locations must be affected as well.
Based on the foreign tourist information gathered from 1999 to 2006, this research is divided into 5 major areas in Taiwan and establishes the empirical model for the demand system of foreign tourists to Taiwanese international hotels. By means of indirect setting of the avail and the first-order differential approximation, the research derives at a constant flexibility demand system. It then adds the factors of seasonal changes and external impact variables, and employs seeming unrelated regression to obtain the estimation parameters. Using Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) analysis, this research compares the about result and the demand system without the seasonal changes and external impact variables to conduct model simulation capability comparison. The results show that information from demand system with seasonal changes and external impact variables is most acceptable; that is, the demand system of foreign tourists who come to stay at Taiwanese international hotels is significantly affected by seasonal changes and external impact variables.

並列關鍵字

constant flexibility demand system ； international hotels ； Accommodation Demand

參考文獻

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