日本出境旅遊需求體系季節變動效果之研究

Estimation of Demand System with Seasonal Change for Japanese Outbound Tourism

歐子廷(Ou Tzu-Ting)

指導教授 ： 鄭健雄 ； 林銘昌

亞洲大學/管理學院/休閒與遊憩管理學系碩士班/碩士(2011年)

摘要

觀光旅遊活動具有淡旺季之特性，其中季節變動對旅遊產業影響甚大，對旅遊活動之需求亦具直接衝擊性，因此，研究旅遊需求時應考慮需求彈性在不同季節所產生的差異。亞洲地區旅遊市場以日本旅遊市場將近80%的出境目的地在亞洲地區，將此國家為做研究對象。本研究由分析歷年日本國人赴亞洲國家旅遊地之需求狀況，並建立具季節差異之日本國人出國旅遊需求體系模型，透過對文獻上實證模型設定的修正，將季節差異效果、經濟及環境衝擊等因素導入需求函數，並與不考慮上述因素之需求體系，進行模型配適度之比較，以求得日本國人赴亞洲各旅遊國家間之自身、交叉價格彈性與所得彈性。
本文選用近似理想需求體系(Almost Ideal Demand System ,AIDS)為實證模型，不直接設定效用函數，透過一階微分近似法(First-order Differential Approximation)導出需求體系，並於需求體系中加入季節變動、亞洲金融風暴及SARS期間虛擬變數，採用似乎無關聯迴歸法(Seeming Unrelated Regression)估計日本國人赴亞洲旅遊需求體系。將上述所得之結果與未加入上述因素之需求體系，透過殘差均方根(RMSE：Root Mean Square Error)，進行模型模擬能力之比較。研究結果顯示自身價格彈性部份，中國及台灣皆呈現負向；交叉彈性部份，日本國人對於中國之旅遊需求與韓國、台灣和泰國，以及台灣與韓國、泰國之旅遊需求呈現顯著之替代關係，無呈現互補關係；支出彈性部份，中國、韓國、泰國旅遊支出彈性較大，台灣旅遊支出彈性略為較小。加入虛擬變數之需求體系對資料的配適效果為佳，亦即，日本國人赴亞洲旅遊需求體系顯著存在季節差異。

關鍵字

需求體系 ； 旅遊需求 ； 需求彈性

並列摘要

Tourism activities with the characteristics of peak seasons, seasonal changes in the tourism industry, which exert a great influence on the demand for tourism activities also have a direct impact, and therefore the study should be considered travel demand elasticity of demand in different seasons produced the differences. Asian tourism market to the Japanese tourist market, nearly 80 percent of the outbound destination in Asia, this country is to do the study. This study analyzed over the years by the Japanese people to go to Asian countries travel to the demand conditions, seasonal differences and the establishment of a Japanese demand system model for people to travel abroad, through the literature on the empirical model set of amendments to the seasonal differences in the effect, economic and environmental impact, etc. factors into the demand function, and does not consider the above factors with the demand system, the model with the more moderate, in order to achieve Japanese people go to the tourist regions of Asia itself, cross-price elasticity and income elasticity.
This selection of near-ideal demand system (Almost Ideal Demand System, AIDS) as the empirical model does not directly set the utility function, through the first-order differential approximation (First-order Differential Approximation) export demand system, and the demand system by adding seasonal variation, Asia financial crisis and the SARS period dummy variables, using regression seemed to be no correlation (Seeming Unrelated Regression) estimates demand for Japanese people to go to Asia Travel system. The results obtained with the above is not the inclusion of such factors demand system, through the residual root mean square (RMSE: Root Mean Square Error), the ability of the model simulations compare. The results showed that the price elasticity of their own part of China and Taiwan are showing negative; cross-elasticity of some of the Japanese people for China's tourism demand in Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, as well as Taiwan and South Korea, Thailand's tourism demand presents a significant relationship between the alternative without showing a complementary relationship; flexible spending part of China, Korea, Thailand travel expenses greater flexibility, Taiwan tourism expenditure elasticity slightly smaller. Demand system by adding dummy data fit for better effect, that the Japanese people to go to Asia Travel demand system there is a significant seasonal differences.

並列關鍵字

demand systems ； travel demand ； elasticity of demand

參考文獻

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