台灣半導體工業未來發展預測

Forecast of Semiconductor Industry in Taiwan

袁建中(Benjamin J. C. Yuan) ； 王建彬(Chien-Pin Wang) ； 陳梧桐(Terry Chen)

《東海管理評論》 7卷1期 (2005/07) Pp. 1-37

https://doi.org/10.29724/TMR.200507.0001

摘要

台灣IC代工、封裝位居世界第一。但面臨產業環境快速變遷及創新導向的21世紀，台灣能否保持優勢甚或更上層樓，為當前台灣半導體工業之重要課題，本研究之目的為透過對經營環境、產業結構、技術進程及市場前景之預測，提供產、官、學、研未來決策之參考。本研究方法係利用德菲法(Delphi)進行長期預測，預測時間自2003～2015年。研究結果顯示：(1)2015年台灣經營環境以「產業國際化」及「策略聯盟」最重要；(2)2015年台灣半導體產業分工模式仍持續，但需調整，另45%專家認為台灣晶圓代工仍能獨領風騷，但55%認為不會。(3)2015年四個最重要之技術為：低電壓製程(CMOS)、High K、奈米製程＜50奈米、銅導線製程。(4)台灣IC產業產值2015年達108,520百萬美元，全球IC產品產值2015年為357,623百萬美元，台灣佔全球IC產品產值，2015年達14.2%。

關鍵字

半導體 ； 德菲法 ； 技術預測 ； 積體電路

並列摘要

The total value of output in Taiwan's IC industry is ranked top three following close to the USA and Japan worldwide, let alone her number one reputation in the service division of IC foundry and packaging. Facing the sever industrial environment and innovation-oriented concept in the 21(superscript st) century, however, the importance of maintaining competitiveness of IC industry in Taiwan, or even upgrading technology process cannot be overemphasized. The findings in this article provide some valuable forethought covering business environment, industrial structure, technology transformation, and forecast of the market as the strategic references to the government, academic, and industry. The methodology adopted in this paper is the Delphi method, and the forecast period lasts from 2003 to 2015. In our empirical result, certain significant remarks can be summarized as follows: (1) the trend of future model environment will be focused on 'industrial globalization' and 'strategic alliance', (2) the foundry business in the semiconductor manufacture of Taiwan will still remain until 2015 but some modification might be required; 45% of expertise recognizes the foundry service in Taiwan remains ahead among the other countries though 55% holds passive opinion, (3) the four core technologies of 2015: Low voltage process (CMOS), High K, nanotechonology process＜0.1μ, copper leading wire process, (4) the estimated output value of IC industry in 2005 is US$32.2 billion, US$61 billion in 2010 and US$108.8 billion in 2015. The compound growth rate is 18.1%, 13.1% and 12.3% respectively. As far as the world market is concerned, the total IC production in 2005 is valued US$165.7 billion, and up to US$357.6 in 2015. The market share of Taiwan is 14% in 2015 respectively in estimation.

並列關鍵字

semiconductor ； Delphi method ； technology forecast ； integrated circuit

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