應計基礎盈餘及現金基礎現金流量預測未來現金流量之能力－事後內部價值法之實證

Research into the Ability of Using Accural-base Earnings and Cash-base Cash Flow to Prediction the Future Cash Flow-The Empirical Test of Ex Post Intrinsic Value Approach

黃金發 ； 羅曼菱 ； 許婷婷

《蘭陽學報》 7期 (2008/06) Pp. 75-85

https://doi.org/10.6665/JLYIT.2008.7.75

摘要

本研究旨在探討應計會計基礎盈餘及現金基礎之來自營業活動之現金流量相對預測公司未來現金流量之能力，不同於先前學者們使用股票報酬(Dechow 1994)或採用未來營業現金流量(Barthetal, 2001; Kim and Kross, 2005)及未來盈餘(Dhali wallet al ,1999)作爲未來現金流量之研究，本研究參照Subramanyam .K. R.及 Mohan Venkatachalam(2007)之研究方法，採用事後內部價值法做爲預測未來現金流量之比較標準，探討應計基礎及現金基礎何者較能適當反應公司未來現金流量，並驗證FASB認爲應計基礎盈餘較能預測未來現金流量之觀點(SFAC NO. 1, FASB 1978)。本研究之研究樣本取自2001年至2006年，本研究實證結果發現應計會計基礎盈餘預測未來現金流量之能力優於現今基礎之來自營業活動之現金流量。

關鍵字

盈餘 ； 營業活動現金流量 ； 事後內部價值

並列摘要

We reexamine the relative importance of accrual-base earnings and cash-base operating cash flows in future cash flow prediction. In contrast to previous studies that use stock returns (Dechow 1994) or future operating cash flows (Barth et al. 2001, Kim and Kross 2005), or future earnings (Dhaliwal et al 1999) ,we will refer to Subramanyam .K. R. and Mohan Venkatachalam (2007) with use ex post intrinsic value of equity as the criterion for comparison to reexamine the relative importance of earnings and operating cash flows in future cash flow prediction. Ex post intrinsic values better reflect the uncertainty of investors’ future cash flow that be able to demonstrate that FASB suggests that accrual-base is better than cash-base to prediction future cash flow.(SFAC NO. 1, FASB 1978) .Our sample collection period is from 2001 to 2006.Our results suggest that accrual based earnings can predic future cash flows better than the operating cash flows.

並列關鍵字

earnings ； operating cash flows ； ex post intrinsic value

參考文獻

Aboody, D.,M. E. Barth,R. Kasznik.(1999).Revaluations of fixed assets and future firm performance.Journal of Accounting and Ecommics.26,149-178.

Barth, M. E.,Cram, D.,Nelson, K.(2001).Accruals and the prediction of future cash flow.The Accounting Review.76(1),27-58.

Working paper

Bowen, R. M.,Burgstahler, D.,Daley, L. A.(1986).Evidence on the relationships between earnings and various measure of cash flow.The Accounting Review.61(4),713-726.

Working paper