近年來,農業勞動力的高齡化為我國急迫需要解決的農業問題之一。然而,根據行政院農業委員會農糧署之農家戶口抽樣調查結果發現,我國農牧戶當中45歲以下之年輕農家子弟未來從事農牧業工作之意願甚低,顯示在臺灣農業勞動力老化的同時,並沒有年輕一輩之新血注入產業當中,在未來可能造成嚴重的勞動力斷層。回顧過去國內相關之研究,大多著重於農業勞動力的移動,鮮少有研究將重點置於年輕一代之農家子弟。本研究希望與從與以往研究不同之觀點出發,將研究分析之目標放於30至45歲之農家子弟,希望藉由探討影響農家子弟未來從事農牧業工作之因素,對年輕新血注入臺灣老化農業勞動力結構給予建議。 本研究使用行政院農業委員會農糧署調查之2009年臺灣地區農家戶口抽樣調查資料進行分析,以具備全國代表性之大型資料,解決過去研究利用小樣本對於相關議題進行分析之不足。本文利用間斷選擇模型作為理論之基礎架構,並利用羅吉特模型以及多元羅吉特模型作為實證分析之工具,探討個人、家戶以及家戶內農牧業工作指揮者等層面因素對於農家子弟長、短期從農工作意願之影響。實證結果發現,性別、教育程度、婚姻狀況、個人之農場內、外工作程度、家戶之經營項目以及家戶之農牧業工作收入對於農家子弟之從農意願具有顯著之影響效果;而指揮者之農場內、外工作情形對於農家子弟從農工作意願也具有影響之效果,顯示農家子弟之工作選擇與家中老農之動向息息相關。本研究利用研究之實證結果,對於我國之農家子弟政策提出相關建議,期望對於臺灣農家子弟政策產生實際之助益。
The old aged agricultural structure has been a serious problem in Taiwan. According to the government statistics, the willingness of the family farm members aged below 45 to take over family farm business is very low. This evidence indicates the shorthand of new and young farm labors into the agriculture in the coming future. As a result, how to attract young generation into agriculture has been one of the important policy issues in Taiwan. Although studies on farm labor are not scare, there is not much evidence which primarily focused on young farm labor. This study contributes to previous studies by looking at the farm family members aged between 30 and 45. We hope to understand the determinants of the young farm generation toward farming in the future in order to finding out a better way to attract young generation into agriculture. The farm household survey conducted by the Council of Agriculture in Taiwan in 2009 was used. This dataset is nationally representative and it is a large scale dataset for farm households in Taiwan. Built on the random utility framework, we estimated the logit and multinomial logit model to examine the determinants of the young farmers toward farm business in the coming future. We pay attention to distinguish the effects of operator's socio-demographic characteristics, farm production condition and family farm factors on young farmers' willingness to farming. Results indicate that socio-demographic characteristics of the young farmer, family farm conditions and operators' characteristics are significantly associated with young farmer's farming. This result may provide some guideline for the government authority to attract young farmers into agriculture in the future.
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