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  • 學位論文

台灣農耕業部門之投入產出分析

Input-Output Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Taiwan

指導教授 : 陳郁蕙
共同指導教授 : 孫立群
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摘要


近年來隨著經濟結構與民眾飲食習慣的改變,農耕業在初級農業與整體經濟中的地位逐漸式微,但若根據總產值來看,在1980年至2013年間,農耕業產值對初級農業產值之平均貢獻度為43.95%,可見農耕業在初級農業中還是有其重要性,且隨著產業經營型態的轉變,與農耕業相關的二、三級產業日益繁瑣,如食品加工業、農產運銷、餐旅服務等,因此在農耕業對整體經濟的貢獻性評估上有必要將其相關產業納入考量,如此才能正確反應出農耕業在整體經濟中的重要性,惟目前較少有文獻針對此進行研究。有鑑於此,本研究使用投入產出分析法,以2006年及2011年之產業關聯表為基礎,分別針對2006年及2011年農耕業進行產業關聯型態分析及乘數效果分析,並推估2006年至2012年農耕業與相關產業的附加價值,探討在產業關聯效果的影響之下,農耕業與相關產業對整體經濟的貢獻程度。估算結果顯示,在產業關聯形態方面,2006年及2011年農耕業之感應度與影響度皆低於全體產業平均值,屬於第III象限之低關聯性產業,支持與帶動其他產業發展的能力較弱;在乘數效果方面,不論在家計部門內生或外生的情況下,2006年及2011年農耕業的所得乘數與就業乘數皆有不錯的表現,在所有產業中,所得乘數皆排名在前1、2名,就業乘數則排名在6至8名間,而內生化後的生產乘數排名也皆大幅提升至第3名;在附加價值方面,2006年至2012年農耕業與相關產業附加價值對整體經濟的貢獻介於6.33%至7.03%之間,明顯高於初級農耕業對整體經濟的貢獻1.08%至1.34%,而對整體農業附加價值的貢獻則介於56.72%至60.43%之間。

並列摘要


In recent years, with the change of the economic structure and the eating habits of people, status of agricultural sector in the primary agriculture and the overall economy is declining gradually. However, according to the total production value, during 1980 to 2013, agricultural sector contribute 43.95% to the average of primary agriculture production value. It is obvious that agricultural sector still play an important role in the primary agriculture. With the changes in management patterns, the connections between agricultural sector and secondary and tertiary industries becomes more and more complex. In order to correctly estimate the contribution of agricultural sector and its importance to the overall economy. It is necessary to take the contribution of its related industries into account, however, there were only a few literature in this field. This paper applies the input-output analysis, bases on input-output tables of 2006 and 2011, to analyze the industry linkage effect and multiplier effect of agricultural sector in 2006 and 2011 and to compute the value-added of agricultural sector and its related industry from 2006 to 2012. The result shows that the index of sensitivity dispersion and the index of power dispersion of agricultural sector are below the average of all industries in 2006 and 2011. We can refer agricultural sector as low linkage industry in quadrant III and it is not tremendously supporting and leading other industries. In term of multiplier effect, either household exogenous or endogenous, income and employment multipliers of agricultural sector perform well in 2006 and 2011. Among all industries, income multiplier normally achieves first or second rank, while employment multiplier ranked between sixth and eighth, and production multiplier also reached third rank under household endogenous circumstance. In term of value-added, the contribution of agricultural sector and its related industries to overall economy is between 6.33% and 7.03% during 2006 to 2012. It is significantly higher than the contribution of sole agricultural sector, which is between 1.08% and 1.34%.The contribution of agricultural sector and its related industries to primary agriculture is between 56.72% and 60.43%.

參考文獻


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