具有空間變異性之不排水長邊坡的簡化風險評估

李思緯

doi:10.6342/NTU201903042

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具有空間變異性之不排水長邊坡的簡化風險評估

Simplified Risk Assessment for a Spatially Variable Undrained Long Slope

李思緯 , Ph.D　　Advisor：卿建業　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU201903042

不排水長邊坡；空間變異性；可靠度；風險；土堤； undrained long slope ； spatial variability ； reliability ； risk ； embankment

Abstract │ Reference (44) │ Altmetrics

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The stability of a long slope is a significant issue in geotechnical engineering. For instance, highway embankments, earth embankments, river dykes and sea dykes usually have a uniform cross-section and extend for a long distance in the third dimension. These long soil structures are generally characterised by spatially varying soil properties. The failures for theses structures may have significant economic and societal consequences. Hence, the influence of soil spatial variability on the stability and failure mechanisms of these ‘linear’ structures is worthy to investigate for engineers.
The dyke engineering system is a considerable national construction project for some countries with unique topography due to the global extreme climate. For instance, more than a quarter of the country’s land is below sea level in the Netherlands. The Netherlands is one of the most low-lying countries in the world. The land crisis for this country will be a very serious problem due to the influence of extreme weather. Therefore, the earthen levee flood protection system is one of the major constructions in the Netherlands, and it can be viewed as series systems, where failure at one location can result catastrophic consequences.
In order to ensure the performance of these long-slope systems, standards explicitly require probabilistic designs. For instance, this may include Vanmarcke’s method. However, although it is ‘fast’ to evaluate, there exists some certain simplifying assumptions, e.g., the cylindrical failure surface with a finite length. The impact of these assumptions is one of the focuses in this thesis.
This thesis develops a novel method for predicting the failure probability (pf) of a spatially variable undrained long slope. The method can also predict the length (bc) and volume (Vc) of the sliding mass of the undrained long slope. It is found that the (pf, bc, Vc) solutions computed by Vanmarcke’s method deviate significantly from the reference solutions computed by a more rigorous method. The proposed novel method adopts a revised Vanmarcke’s method to obtain preliminary solutions, and regression equations are applied to correct the biases of the preliminary solutions such that the corrected solutions are close to the reference solutions. The effectiveness of the proposed novel method is demonstrated through a case study.
Finally, the proposed novel method can adopt a simple way to correct these estimations to the relatively ‘accurate’ solutuons without deviating from the original Vanmarcke’s method. The process can make users obtain ‘fast’ and ‘accurate’ simplified risk assessments.

Reference ( 44 ) 〈TOP〉

Au, S.K. and Beck, J.L. (2001). Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 16(4), 263-277.
Berg, B. A. (2004). Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and their statistical analysis: with web-based Fortran code. World Scientific Publishing Company.
Chen, R.H. and Chameau, J.L. (1983). Three-dimensional limit equilibrium analysis of slopes. Geotechnique, 33(1), 31-40.
Cheng, Y.M. and Yip, C.J. (2007). Three-Dimensional asymmetrical slope stability analysis extension of Bishop’s, Janbu’s, and Morgenstern–Price’s techniques. ASCE Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 133(12), 1544-1555.
Chib, S., & Greenberg, E. (1995). Understanding the metropolis-hastings algorithm. The american statistician, 49(4), 327-335.

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