預測澳門旅遊需求：二次曲線模型的應用

黃姿瑄

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預測澳門旅遊需求：二次曲線模型的應用

Forecasting Demand for Tourism to Macau: Application of the Quadratic Model

黃姿瑄 , Masters　　Advisor：邱鳳臨　　

繁體中文

二次曲線模型；旅遊需求；預測；時間序列；澳門； Quadratic Model ； Tourism Demand ； Forecast ； Time Series ； Macau

Abstract │ Reference (66) │ Times Cited (4) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

The thriving development of tourism stimulates the need for tourism research. Tourism research reveals the significance of utilizing information to measure and forecast the development of tourism, which enables related sectors to deal with possible challenges. As a result, the academic circle and the governments all over the world value the study in tourism. As a tiny area in Asia, Macau relies on tourism heavily, and tourism industry also plays an important role in the Macau’s economy. However, the scientific literatures which predict the demands for Macau’s tourism remain scarce. Consequently, this research is expected to offer an accurate prediction and make a contribution to the research in Macau’s tourism.
This study targets tourist arrival and uses monthly time series data from January, 1991 to December, 2007 compiled by Macau Statistics and Census Bureau. In light of the characteristic of the sample data, quadratic model is adopted to forecast tourism demand, using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Cochrane-Orcutt iterative procedure to estimate model. Afterwards, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria, and Diebold-Mariano test are adopted for evaluating the accuracy of the quadratic model. Finally, the Na&iuml;ve method and the forecast result of past literature are compared with the model adopted in this study. In conclusion, the accuracy of quadratic model in Macau’s tourism demand is significantly better.

Reference ( 66 ) 〈TOP〉

陳奕均（2004）《歐美及澳紐地區對台灣之旅遊需求預測》。臺灣大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。
連結：
張家瑄（2004）《亞洲地區對台灣旅遊需求之預測》。臺灣大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。
連結：
張家瑋（2010）《轉移函數模型在旅遊需求預測上的應用－以澳門為例》。國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
連結：
Calantone, Roger J; Di Benedetto, C Anthony; Bojanic, David,1987, “AComprehensive Review of the Tourism Forecasting Literature.”Journal of Travel Research,26(2),28.
連結：
Chan Yiu-Man, 1993, “Forecasting Tourism: A Sine Wave Time Series Regression Approach.”Journal of Travel Research,32:58-60.
連結：

Times Cited (4) 〈TOP〉

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