發展中的APEC合作模式：從CTI、HRDWG工作計畫試探會員體尋找合作夥伴之影響因素

Developing Patterns of Cooperation in APEC: The Determinants of Searching Partners in CTI & HRDWG work programs

潘致弘(Chih-Hung Pan)

指導教授 ： 黃偉峯

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.01915

摘要

過去大部分文獻在描述亞太區域內合作的途徑大致可分為兩種，「區域研究」及「制度建立」觀點，而兩種截然不同的研究途徑最終似乎都會導向藉由「制度形成」來促進行為體進行合作的效果，且論述大多聚焦在制度的形成過程，或探討制度如何去影響「整體」區域間，或是建制會員體之行為。不同於以往研究APEC相關文獻的分析角度，本文嘗試從「個別國家」的角度重新檢視會員體合作之途徑，並找出會員體尋找合作夥伴的可能影響因素。
該如何闡述會員體進行合作？本文從「意願結盟」的觀點切入。意願結盟源自於APEC為解決「共識決」的問題所衍生出來的，反映出「彈性共識」的精神。在落實不同倡議時，各會員視本身情況參與並依意願組成執行小組，對該議題真正有其需求的會員先參與執行，其他人可隨後跟進。本文發現APEC各工作小組之組成與此概念有相關性，因此在會員體實際合作情況的描繪上，以工作計畫的討論為主將更能反映會員體對特定議題的偏好。而本文選擇CTI及HRDWG為討論主題，原因在於其工作計畫數最多，且兩者所涵蓋的議題與APEC之三大支柱有極大關聯性。究竟會員體針對兩個不同的主題，其計畫合作的情況有無不同？影響合作的因素又有那些？即為本文最主要的研究問題。
本文從APEC工作計畫資料庫收集1993至2009年CTI及HRDWG所有的工作計畫，並將資料庫建構成兩兩會員體配對形式(dyadic)，且包含橫斷面(cross section)以及納入縱向追蹤型資料，目的在找尋影響兩會員體同意進行合作的因素有那些。而本文也使用Pooled logistic model以及Conditional fixed-effect logistic model，考量到每組配對組合自身擁有的獨特性，及時間因素的影響，將固定效果也納入模型同時進行討論。
經實證結果發現：一，亞洲等開發中會員體已開始重視貿易投資類議題；二，由工作計畫的共同參與情況發現，APEC確實能引領合作的產生；三，聲望、互惠兩變數可視為各會員體外顯的行為變數，在APEC這個無限期重複賽局的模式下，雖不存在強制性的規範與懲罰制度，亦沒有所謂的背叛行為，仍確實顯著且正向的引領合作的產生；二，對APEC來說，學界提出FTA有助於國際組織運行的論述是成立的。

關鍵字

亞太經濟合作會議 ； 工作計畫 ； 合作 ； 貿易暨投資委員會 ； 人力資源發展工作小組

並列摘要

In the past, most of literatures’ research approaches, that depict the regional cooperation within the Asia-Pacific, can be divided into two different types, 「Region study」or 「Institution-building」view. These two types of approach seem to have similar conclusions that we can promote cooperation by building institutions, which can be a international regime or a international organization. Furthermore, the most statements were focused on the process of institution building, or explored on how do institutions affect the behavior of region and regime members? Unlike the analyzing approach used in most APEC-related literatures, we try to use state-based (or micro-based) view to re-examine the patterns of cooperation within APEC members, and figure out what determinants may affect members in searching for partners.
How to elaborate members’ cooperation? We will use the notion of「Coalition of the willing」. This notion was derived from when APEC tried to solve the 「consensus decision」problems, and furthermore, it reflects the meaning of 「flexible consensus」. In the implementation of various initiatives, each member can depend on their own situation and form in steering groups with their willingness. The member who really concern about these issue can implement first, other members may follow-up. We noticed that most APEC working groups created were related to these concepts. Therefore, if we want to discuss the practical situations of cooperation, 「work programs」will be the better reflection for the truly preference of the members in specific issue. Thus, we chose CTI & HRDWG as our major subjects.
The first reason of why we choose CTI & HRDWG work programs is that they had been implemented the most programs than other groups. Second, the issues they concerned about are connected with APEC’s three pillars. In brief, the major questions of this study is to explore that whether the different patterns of cooperation exist when members face these different topics, and figure out the determinants that could affect them.
We included all the CTI & HRDWG work programs from 1993 to 2009 that APEC posted at official online database, and we constructed our database to match the dyadic and panel form, which covered the cross-section and longitudinal data. The main purpose of this database is trying to clarify one problem, why they cooperate. In the empirical studies, we were not only applied the pooled logistic model, but Conditional fixed-effect logistic model to consider the unobserved differences, which mean unmeasured predictors of the dependent variable that would cause each dyad to have its own base rate.
Our major findings are as follows: (1) Developing members in Asia have begun to concern about trade and investment issues. (2) In the implementation of work programs, we found APEC actually led the members to cooperate. (3) We created Reputation, and Reciprocity as members’ behavior variables, and we found that they significantly affected members to cooperate in APEC, the special form of infinitely repeated games that didn’t exist any punishment or binding rule. (2) For APEC, FTA may have covered some issues of CTI & HRD, so FTA could promote programs cooperation more easily.

並列關鍵字

APEC ； work programs ； Cooperation ； Committee on Trade and Investment ； Human Resource Development Working Group

參考文獻

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