臺灣中部阿里山與玉山山區熱環境之趨勢

陳彥竹

doi:10.6342/NTU201900123

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臺灣中部阿里山與玉山山區熱環境之趨勢

Trends of the Mountain Thermal Environment of Alishan and Yushan in Central Taiwan

陳彥竹 , Masters　　Advisor：關秉宗　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU201900123

總體經驗模態分解法；全球暖化；生長度日；最大熵值重複置還取樣法；山區熱環境；物候； Ensemble empirical mode decomposition ； Global warming ； Growing degree days ； Maximum entropy bootstrap ； Mountain thermal environment ； Phenology

Abstract │ Reference (80) │ Altmetrics

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Global warming has become an important research focus because the changes of thermal environment will affect not only the lives of organisms, but ecosystem functions as well. Alpine areas are more vulnerable to climate warming than low land areas. Hence, there is a pressing need for more phenological research in the former areas. However, Taiwan lacks long-term phenological data and has little understanding of its mountain thermal environment. Therefore, this study aims to probe into the trends of thermal environment in mountainous areas in Taiwan. The long-term temperature data of Alishan and Yushan weather stations, representing mid- and high-elevation areas in Taiwan, respectively, of the Central Weather Bureau were used in this study. The study first calculated the accumulated growing degree-days (GDD) of two stations in spring, autumn, and winter every year. Then, we obtained four time series— “GDD anomaly”, “Daily maximum temperature anomaly”, “Daily minimum temperature anomaly”, and “days anomaly” based on the 1961–1990 average. Because climate data are typically nonlinear and non-stationary, this study used “ensemble empirical mode decomposition” to extract the trends of four datasets, 1st differencing and 2nd differencing to approximate velocity and acceleration of the extracted trends, and “maximum entropy bootstrap” to establish confidence intervals for the estimates.
    The results showed that both stations had an upward trend in GDD anomaly in the three seasons, which means increasing heat accumulation in both areas, and autumn had the fastest increasing trend. Furthermore, in Alishan, the velocities of GDD anomaly trends in three seasons kept increasing with constant accelerations; in Yushan, though the velocities also kept increasing, the decelerations had begun since the 1980s and reached zero around 2010s. By analyzing the daily maximum and minimum temperature anomaly data, this study found the divergence between the GDD of Alishan and Yushan was mainly due to the opposite trends in the daily minimum temperatures. The results of days anomaly showed a similar but downward trend, compared to the GDD anomaly data, which indicates that the speed of heat accumulation became faster in both areas. The main difference between the two stations is that the GDD anomaly of Alishan started to increase for 5 to 10 years before that of Yushan. However, days anomaly began to decrease at almost the same time in the two stations.

Reference ( 80 ) 〈TOP〉

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