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  • 學位論文

以有限圓錐貫入試驗估計水平向關聯性長度

Estimating horizontal scale of fluctuation with limited CPT soundings

指導教授 : 卿建業

摘要


關聯性長度是大地工程中描述空間中資料相關性的一個重要參數,關聯性長度大反應出的實際情況為地層為接近均質情形。本研究將以圓錐貫入試驗 (cone penetration test, CPT) 的修正之錐尖阻抗 (qt) 資料做為討論對象,著重探討利用圓錐貫入試驗資料估計水平向關聯性長度。相比於垂直向關聯性長度,水平向關聯性長度的估計較為困難,原因為水平方向上的資訊豐富程度遠低於垂直方向,以施作單一孔位CPT作為說明,CPT在施作時是以垂直方向進行,故在垂直方向上有大量的資訊,而沒有任何水平方向的資料,故較難有效的估計出水平關聯性長度。面對在水平方向上有限的資訊,本研究採用以貝氏分析為基礎的漸進式馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法 (transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo, TMCMC; Ching and Chen, 2007) 作為估計水平方向的隨機場參數的方法,且於研究過程中發現,自關聯性模型的選擇會對關聯性長度評估有很大的影響,故進一步將自關聯性模型類型一併納入考量,所用的自關聯性模型為Stein於1999年提出的Whittle-Matérn模型,此模型可平滑參數以及關聯性長度同時納入考量。在上述二種工具的使用下,本研究欲以有限(少於十孔)的CPT孔數估計水平關聯性長度,最後將以實際案例說明估計水平關聯性長度之流程。

並列摘要


The scale of fluctuation (SOF) is an important parameter to characterize the spatial correlation of soil or rock property. The large SOF indicates that the soil or rock is close to homogeneous situation. This study will focus on the estimation of horizontal SOF based on the cone penetration test (CPT) soundings. Compare to the vertical SOF, determining the horizontal scale of fluctuation is challenging, because a single CPT sounding contains abundant information, but no information in the horizontal direction. In current study, it demonstrates that it is possible to estimate the horizontal SOF base on the limited CPT soundings which separation distances are chosen suitably and probability analysis framework. The study also shows that the Whittle-Matérn auto-correlation model should be adopted to obtain a consistent estimation of horizontal SOF. The proposed approach will be applied to a real case study finally.

參考文獻


王俊翔(民105)。根據圓錐貫入試驗資料判識土壤層面與分析工址的機率特性(未出版之碩士論文)。國立台灣大學,台北市。
Beck, J. L. and Au, S. K. (2002). Bayesian updating of structural models and reliability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. ASCE Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 128(4), 380-391.
Ching, J. and Chen, Y. C. (2007). Transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo method for Bayesian model updating, model class selection and model averaging. ASCE Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 133(7), 816-832.
Ching, J., Wu, S. S., and Phoon, K. K. (2015). Statistical characterization of random field parameters using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 52(1), 1-14.
Ching, J., Phoon, K. K., and Wu, S. H. (2016). Impact of statistical uncertainty on geotechnical reliability estimation. ASCE Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 142(6), 04016027.

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