- 學位論文
跨國景氣循環： 雙變量馬可夫轉換模型之應用
Modeling the International Business Cycle Using Bivariate Markov-Switching Models
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並列摘要
In this study, we compare the performance of various bivariate Markov switching~(MS) models, including models for the independence case, the perfect-synchronization case, and for the general case, in characterizing the international business cycles~(IBC) of the U.S. and Canada and that of the U.S. and Japan. This empirical study shows that, compared to the independence model and the perfect-synchronization model, the general model is capable of explaining the IBC in a better way. Meanwhile, this generalized model also permits us to define a time-varying synchronization index for the IBC by the smooth probability of the common recession or expansion state. Using this synchronization index, we find that the IBC of the U.S. and Canada has been further strengthened in the 1990's; in comparison, the IBC of the U.S. and Japan has been less synchronized in the same period.
參考文獻
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延伸閱讀
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- Huang, W. S. (2016). 多變量整合分析與多指標多區域臨床試驗之多維度隨機效應模型之應用 [doctoral dissertation, National Chiao Tung University]. Airiti Library. https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0030-2212201712080107
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- Liao, S. Y. (2014). 景氣循環與結構變遷之兩部門模型分析 [doctoral dissertation, National Taiwan University]. Airiti Library. https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.00180
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