海地經濟成長之決定因素：1980年至2013年之時間序列分析

范莫斯

doi:10.6342/NTU.2015.02371

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海地經濟成長之決定因素：1980年至2013年之時間序列分析

Determinants of Economic Growth in Haiti: A Time Series Analysis over the Period 1980-2013

范莫斯 , Masters　　Advisor：雷立芬　　

英文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU.2015.02371

经济增长；单位根；协整；向量误差修正模型；脉冲响应函数；方差分解；海地； Economic growth ； Unit root ； Cointegration ； Vector Error Correction Model ； Impulse Response function ； Variance decomposition ； Haiti

Abstract │ Reference (168) │ Altmetrics

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This study investigates the dynamic interactions between economic growth and some factors such as foreign direct investment, foreign aid, gross capital formation, national saving and inflation rate in Haiti over the period 1980-2013. To achieve the objectives of the study, Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) is used as analytical framework. As the variables are cointegrated, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger - causality are used to describe both the short-run and long-run effects between the variables. Furthermore, impulse response functions and variance decompositions are performed to examine the dynamic relationship between the variables.
The results show that  in the long-run : 1) one percent increase in  Foreign Direct Investment  will increase RGDP by 0.03 % , ceteris paribus  2) one percent increase in National Saving will increase RGDP  by 0.07 %   3) one percent increase in Gross Capital Formation will increase RGDP by 0.24 %   4) one percent increase in Inflation Rate will decrease RGDP by 0.4 %  and one percent increase in  Foreign  Aid will  increase  insignificantly RGDP  by  0.008 % .
In the short-run, it is found no causality running from the independent variables to Real GDP at 5% but at 10 % only national saving granger-causes Real GDP. Nevertheless, it is depicted causality running from Real GDP to foreign direct investment, national saving and foreign aid at 5 %.   Finally, it can be noted that The VECM results are confirmed by the impulse response functions and variance decompositions results.  Thus, based on these findings, it is recommended that adequate policies be implemented in order to promote foreign direct investment, savings and gross capital formation in the country. Likewise, it is worth making a better coordination of the foreign aid in the country.

Reference ( 168 ) 〈TOP〉

Acemoglu, D. (2008). Introduction to modern economic growth. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
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Aghion, P., and Howitt, P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323-351.
連結：
Agrawal, P., and Sahoo, P. (2009). Savings and Growth in Bangladesh. The Journal of Developing Areas, 42(2), 89-110.
連結：
Ahmad, N., and Joyia, U. S. (2012). The relationship between inflation and economic growth in Pakistan: An econometric approach. Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 2(9), 38-48.
連結：
Al Khathlan, K. (2014). Foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth in Saudi Arabia : A co-integration analysis. Reviews of Economics and Finance, 4(1), 70-80.
連結：

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