本研究主要探討循環信用餘額因素與總體經濟變數之交互關係。實證期間為1998年2月至2006年12月,實證資料分為三個時期,分別為卡債風暴發生前、發生後與進行卡債協商機制後。實證過程先利用Granger (1980)所提出的因果關係檢定,瞭解循環信用餘額與總體因素間之領先-落後關係。其次,利用向量自我迴歸模型探討循環信用餘額與總體經濟變數間的互動關係。最後,採用Sims(1980)所提出的衝擊反應函數與預測誤差變異數分解,檢視循環信用餘額與總體經濟變數的短期動態反應過程,以探討總體經濟變數對循環信用餘額之影響。 實證結果顯示營建業銷售額與預借現金金額在三個期間內,皆對循環信用餘額有影響;在卡債風暴發生後,刷卡人會因物價變化,影響其刷卡之消費行為。而失業率在卡債風暴前後,都受到循環信用餘額的影響;在加入協商機制後,失業率與循環信用餘額彼此有相互影響。另外,在加入協商機制後,批發零售業銷售額影響循環信用餘額。 由實證結果可得以下結論:營建業銷售額與預借現金金額在卡債風暴期間都為影響循環信用餘額的主因,所以緊縮預借現金業務及調降購屋刷卡支出的上限將有效降低循環信用餘額的擴大;另外,在卡債協商機制期間,批發零售業為影響循環信用餘額的主因,應適時宣導民眾量入為出的理財觀念。利用預測誤差變異數分解比較卡債風暴期間與協商機制期間可知,預借現金金額在進行卡債協商機制對循環信用餘額的增加有趨緩的作用,即循環利息在協商機制期間有降低的趨勢,這顯示循環信用餘額在協商期間因循環利息而增加的比例相對減少許多,而政府與發卡銀行應對持卡人宣導正確的理財觀念與理性消費,並對信用卡債務的循環利率作適當的調整,才是解決卡債族問題的根本之道。
This thesis aims to examine the relationships credit card revolving balance and macroeconomic variables, and to investigate the macroeconomic variables to verify the effects of macroeconomic variable on credit card revolving balance. This thesis is based on monthly data in Taiwan from February 1998 through December 2006. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests analysis has been employed to examine if the stationary of study variables, Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model is then utilized to analyze the relationships between credit card revolving credit balance and macroeconomic variables. Finally, Impulse Response Function and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition have been applied to extract the short term impacts of macroeconomic variables on credit card revolving credit balance. The major finding of the study is Consumer Debt Negotiation Mechanism could be to control the expanding and decelerate the increasing of credit card revolving balance.