時間及養育成本對不同世代婦女生育行為影響：一般均衡分析

本文建構一般均衡模型，將教育移轉內生化，探討薪資、時間成本及養育成本對婦女完成生育率影響，以1958~1962世代出生婦女資料進行模擬校準。一般均衡結果顯示，在同樣變動比例下，婦女薪資的上升對生育率提升效果最為顯著，而政府的育兒津貼政策，其政策效果會受到高、低教育程度勞工間替代彈性影響；當彼此為相對替代關係時，對生育率並無正向影響；當彼此為相對互補關係時，育兒津貼有助於生育率的提升。本文以歷年人力資源調查及家庭收支調查資料，估計1968~1972世代出生婦女的養育成本及薪資，計算兩世代間年成長率，世代間薪資年成長率約為2%，養育成本年成長率約為4%，推測養育成本相對於薪資的快速增長，是完成生育率下降的主要原因。

關鍵字

一般均衡；完成生育率；時間成本；臺灣；養育成本

並列摘要

This paper develops a static general equilibrium model which endogenizes education transitivity to study the impact of time cost, wages, and cost of a child on CFR (completed fertility rate) in Taiwan. I calibrate the model to data for the females born from 1958 to 1962 in Taiwan. The result suggests that an increase in the females’ lifetime wages have the most significant positive impact on CFR in the model. The impact of child care subsidy depends on the substitution between more and less educated workers in this model. When these two types of workers are relatively more substitute, the impact of child care subsidy on fertility is minor in this model. When these two types of workers are relatively more complement, the impact of child care subsidy has positive effect on CFR in this model. Besides, I estimate the annual growth rate of females’ lifetime wages and the cost of a child in the model with annual Manpower Utilization Survey and the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure between 1958-1962 birth cohort of women and 1968-1972 birth cohort of women. The annual growth rate of females’ lifetime wage and cost of a child are 2% and 4%, respectively. The rapid growth rate of cost of a child relative to the females’ lifetime wage is the main reason for the decline in complete fertility rate between these two cohorts.