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  • 學位論文

大陸政策與國家利益:李扁馬執政時期的比較(1988-2013)

Mainland Policy and National Interest : Comparison of the Administrations of Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou (1988-2013)

指導教授 : 陳明通

摘要


在李扁馬主政共28年的時間裡,主導的大陸政策常高舉所謂的「國家利益」。但由於兩岸的特殊關係,以及北京對台的戰略企圖,以致大陸政策攸關我國家生存甚鉅,因此李扁馬執政時期大陸政策是否符合國家利益,臺灣民眾又如何看待或評估,且究竟受到何種因素所主導支配,就成為一項非常值得研究的議題。為此,本論文主要根據「兩岸簽署服貿爭議」期間委託國內民調公司,在2013年11月5日至11月13日進行的一項電話訪問民調,運用「二元勝算對數模型」來解構民眾評價李扁馬大陸政策是否符合國家利益的理論模型。 本論文的研究發現,臺灣民眾對「李登輝政府」的評價最高,認為李登輝的大陸政策最符合國家利益,民眾對於「陳水扁政府」的評價次之,馬英九主政時期的評價最低。其次、民眾對於李扁馬大陸政策的評價,與所屬政黨認同有重要關聯,不管是李扁馬主政時期都有顯著差異,可從統計結果得知,台灣民眾對民進黨的政黨認同愈高,則愈傾向於認為陳水扁主政時期大陸政策符合國家利益;同樣地,當民眾對於國民黨的政黨認同愈高,對馬英九的大陸政策符合國家利益評價也愈高,故可推論當民眾對執政黨評價愈高時,愈認為主政者的大陸政策愈符合國家利益,顯然是民眾評價總統及執政黨大陸政策施政績效評比的有效指標之一。 關鍵詞:國家認同、國族認同、政黨認同

並列摘要


During the 28-years in which former presidents Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou were in power, the policy towards mainland China has emphasized the so-called "national interest". However, due to the special relationship between our two countries, and Beijing’s strategic attempts on Taiwan, our policy towards mainland China is of vital importance to the survival of our country. Therefore, do the policies of former presidents Lee, Chen, and Ma align with national interests? How do the Taiwanese people perceive or evaluate them, and what, if any, factors affect their opinion? These questions are very worthy of study. This research mainly focuses on people’s opinion on the issue of “Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement” based on a telephone interview poll conducted between November 5 to 13. I utilized the "Binary logit model" to analyze whether the mainland policies of Lee, Chen and Ma conform to the national interest. The results show that overall, Taiwanese people have the highest opinion of Lee Teng-hui’s government, believing that his policy towards the mainland is in line with the national interest. Chen Shui-bian’s government was voted second, and the Ma Ying-jeou’s government received the lowest opinion. Additionally, people’s "political party identity" had direct effect on their evaluation the three former presidents’ mainland China policies. It is worth noting that “national identity” and “ethnic identity” did not affect the people’s evaluation of Chen.There is an important connection between the people’s evaluation of Lee, Chen and Ma's policy and the political party identity. That is, people who are aligned with the DPP have a higher evaluation of Chen’s policies. In the same vein, people who align with the KMT have higher more positive opinions of Ma’s mainland policy. Therefore, the political alignment is clearly one of the effective indicators of the people's evaluation of the performance of the President and the ruling party's policy performance. Keywords: national identity,ethnic identity,party identity

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


謝久如(2017)。臺灣民眾對公警軍三類人員政治信任變遷之研究~以2001年至2014年四波調查分析為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU201701848

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