台灣地區由於水文及地文條件特殊,當暴雨事件發生時,常在短時間內導致淹水災情。傳統的淹水模式,雖可獲得良好的模擬結果,但須花費較長的演算時間,無法在緊急應變前置時間內完成淹水模擬。 本研究主要目的是建立一套適用於台灣地區之淹水計算模式,銜接中央氣象局定量降水預報系統(QPESUMS system),利用雷達回波資訊推估之雨量整合地面雨量站觀測之雨量,進行即時演算淹水模擬,並以納莉颱風事件評估不同網格尺度及演算時距對模式運算時間及模擬精度之影響。 研究區域為基隆河流域,採用海棠颱風及柯羅莎颱風兩場颱洪事件進行淹水模擬,成功銜接QPESUMS雷達雨量資訊,及在短時間內完成淹水演算工作。未來若能加入1-3小時預報降雨量,在短時間內完成淹水模擬,模擬結果可提供做為1-3小時之淹水預報,有助於決策單位進行災情分析研判及後續相關防救災工作,提昇應變作業之效能。
Although traditional inundation models have been applied with good accuracy in Taiwan, they usually require a long computing time for simula-tions. However, the meteorological and geographical conditions in Taiwan frequently cause inundation within a short time period when storm occurs. The lead-time for emergency response in too short to indicate the areas with high flood risks for evacuation by using the traditional inundation models. The study aims to establish an inundation model for Taiwan and inte-grate the QPESUMS system which constructed and developed by the Cen-tral Weather Bureau. The radar precipitation by the QPESUMS system, as well as the rain-gauge records, are considered in the inundation model for real-time simulations. The precipitation data of typhoon NARI were simu-lated and evaluated different scale of grid size that the accuracy and effi-ciency of model would be suggested for practical applications. The Keelung River basin is adopted as the study areas of the inunda-tion model. By use of QPESUMS radar precipitation for the typhoon HAITANG and KROSA, the inundation simulations can be calculated in a short time. The model will be executed in the future, to simulate the flood scenarios induced by the occurring and the forecasted rainfalls. The inun-dation will be predicted in 1-3 hours ahead to help the emergency managers taking proper strategies for disaster mitigations.