三隻小豬哪裡來?
2012年總統選舉蔡英文個人捐獻的空間分析─兼論馬英九之個人捐獻

謝孟君

doi:10.6342/NTU201701978

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三隻小豬哪裡來? 2012年總統選舉蔡英文個人捐獻的空間分析─兼論馬英九之個人捐獻

Where Did the Piggy Bank Come from? Comparative Spatial Analysis of Individual Political Donations of Tsai Ing-wen and Ma Ying-jeou during Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election

謝孟君 , Masters　　Advisor：鄧志松　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU201701978

空間分析；政治捐獻；三隻小豬；總統選舉；蔡英文；馬英九； spatial analysis ； political donation ； piggy bank ； presidential election ； Tsai Ing-wen ； Ma Ying-jeou

Abstract │ Reference (128) │ Altmetrics

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Through the “Political Contributions Law” implemented in 2004, the public is able to support specific political parties or candidates through political donations. During Taiwan’s 2012 presidential election, three two and a half year old triplets gave three piggy banks as a donation to Tsai Ing-wen during a Tainan campaign rally. After the campaign rally, Tsai Ing-wen’s campaign headquarters received a call from The Control Yuan’s declaring an investigation into whether Tsai Ing-wen violated the “Political Contributions Law” by accepting political donations from minors. The Democratic Progressive Party countered by admonishing The Control Yuan for violating administrative neutrality. Furthermore, the Democratic Progressive Party was able to use the “Piggy Banks” issue to increase the momentum of their ongoing election campaign, raising large amounts of individual political donations as a result. Although the Democratic Progressive Party failed to win the presidential election in 2012, people were curious about the charm of “Piggy Banks”. The study uses exploratory spatial data analysis to probe the population structure, social positions and economic status of individual political donations to Tsai Ing-wen. An initial analysis is performed via Ordinary Least Squares, adopting individual political donations from Taiwan’s 349 geographic units as dependent variables, and adding regional attribute variables and spatial variables as independent variables, including the urbanization degree, the income, the population structure, the ethic distribution, the education level, the industrial structure, and the political ecology in local areas, and so forth. The study further uses Spatial Lag Model, Spatial Error Model, and General Spatial Model to discuss the spatial effects caused by proximity effect and spatial error. Moreover, this research compares Tsai Ing-wen’s individual political donations with Ma Ying-jeou’s. The results show a vast difference of the R-squared values between the two models and that Tsai Ing-wen’s individual political donations can be far explained by the independent variables than Ma Ying-jeou’s. Last but not least, the research discovers that individual political donations do not correspond to voting rates, which deserves further exploration.

Reference ( 128 ) 〈TOP〉

吳重禮、許文賓（2003）。〈誰是政黨認同者與獨立選民？─以二○○一年臺灣地區選民政黨認同的決定因素為例〉，《政治科學論叢》(18)：101-140。
連結：
林佳龍（1989）。〈威權侍從體制下的臺灣反對運動─民進黨社會基礎的政治解釋〉，《臺灣社會研究季刊》2(1)：117-143。
連結：
林佳龍（2000）。〈臺灣民主化與政黨體下的變遷：菁英與群眾的選舉連結〉，《臺灣政治學刊》(4)：3-55。
連結：
林瓊珠（2012）。〈穩定與變動：臺灣民眾的「臺灣人/中國人」認同與統獨立場之分析〉，《選舉研究》19(1)：97-127。
連結：
陳世敏（1991）。〈民意調查與臺灣的民主化：以施政滿意程度和公眾人物的聲望調查為例〉，《新聞學研究》(45)：101-118。
連結：

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