- 學位論文
臺灣民眾對我國實施民主的評價變遷～2001-2014 年四波調查的分析
Changes in the Taiwanese Public's Evaluation of Democracy: Analysis of Four Surveys Between 2001 and 2014
摘要
本論文以民主化相關理論為基礎，研究臺灣民眾對於民主評價的變遷，並以臺灣大學「東亞民主研究中心」，「亞洲民主動態調查臺灣地區調查研究計畫」其中之2001 年第一波、2006 年第二波、2010 年第三波、2014 年第四波，跨越臺灣兩次政黨替的四波資料所進行研究。並借重「社會科學統計套裝軟體」(Statistical Package for Social Science, SPSS)，描述臺灣民眾對實施民主的評價分 配。其次，運用「二元勝算對數迴歸分析」(binary logit regression analysis)建立性別、年齡、教育程度、家庭每月平均收入、族群、社會階層、政黨偏好及政府滿意度等獨立變數，作為對實施民主的評價的解釋模型，用以探討民主評價的變遷情形以及變遷之原因。 研究發現，民眾對民主態度會隨著時間有所變遷，其中，民眾對於臺灣過去或是現在的民主態度變化已經不再有過大的波動、民主滿意度則由於民眾將之具體化為執政黨評價因此起伏較大、民主支持度則相對呈現平穩增長。 在影響民主評價變遷因素部分，本文發現性別、年齡、教育程度、家庭收入、族群、社會階層、藍綠陣營、對政府滿意度，都會使民主評價產生變化，但是在政治傾向以及對政府滿意度的部分，對於民主態度有著高度影響。
並列摘要
Based on the theory of democratization, this study aimed to explore the change in Taiwanese people's evaluation of democracy. The data is collected from the Center for East Asia Democratic Studies of Taiwan University and is based on the project called “Asian Barometer Survey in Taiwan”. During the two political party alternations in Taiwan, four waves (including the first wave in 2001, the second wave in 2006, the third wave in 2010, and the fourth wave in 2014) were elicited. The methodology of the thesis employs the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) to describe changes in the Taiwanese public's evaluation of the implementation of democracy. Furthermore, we use binary logit regression analysis to establish independent variables such as gender, age, educational level, average monthly household income, ethnic group, social class, party preference and government satisfaction, as evaluation models to explore the change in the evaluation of democracy and the reason for it. The results show that people's attitudes toward democracy will change over time. Regarding people’s evaluation of democracy, there is little change in people’s attitude toward the past or current democracy in Taiwan. The degree of democratic satisfaction is fluctuating due to the fact that the people’s evaluation of the ruling party. In addition, the degree of democratic support is growing relatively steadily. Rearding the factors influencing the change in Taiwanese public's evaluation of democracy, gender, age, educational level, family income, ethnic group, social class, party preference and government satisfaction have significant effects on the change in democratic evaluation. However, two factors–people’s party preference and government satisfaction have a huge impact on people’s attitude toward democracy.