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  • 學位論文

機車持有預測模式之研究

The Study of Motorcycle Ownership Prediction Model

指導教授 : 許添本

摘要


摘要 我國歷年機動車輛數持續不斷增加,尤以機車增加情形為最多,此種以機車為私人運具發展導向的情形,亦在許多亞洲國家出現,而機車與汽車混合車流情形使得各種與機車相關之問題發生頻繁,機車持有數量之變動受到重視,因此影響持有之因素及未來機車數量之變化趨勢亦成為政府施政時之重要參考依據,本研究藉日本汽、機車數量之發展趨勢,對機動車輛發展進行階段性定義,以機車數量、汽車數量與國家機動性和經濟性發展指標進行探討,其中發現越南近年發展趨勢與台灣類似,應注意未來機車數量可能遽增之情形。 過去研究指出汽車與機車持有之間有其替代性存在,因此本研究以此為出發點,以聯立方程模式對國內台北市、台中市與高雄市三個地區進行探討,除探討汽車與機車持有替代關係之影響情形,同時進一步瞭解大眾運輸的發達與否,是否會對私人運具之持有造成影響。研究結果發現台北市汽車、機車與大眾運輸使用間彼此有相互替代性存在;台中市則是發現家戶汽車數量會影響家戶持有機車數量與使用大眾運輸人數,家戶機車數量亦會替代汽車之持有數量,家戶使用大眾運輸人數則間接透過家戶持有汽車駕照人數對汽車持有數量有所影響,並由影響因素發現,所得並非影響機動車輛持有之主要因素;高雄市則是汽機車間有直接替代關係,但持有機車或汽車均與所得無關。因此聯立方程模式可用以顯示機車持有、汽車持有及大眾運輸使用間之直接與間接影響關係,且其模式誤差較卜瓦松模式小。另以總體資料建立台灣地區汽車持有與機車持有模式,透過主成分分析方式解決變數間相關性過高而產生的共線性問題,並與一般迴歸進行比較,雖其誤差較聯立模式小,但兩種方式結果均屬優良。 關鍵字:機車持有、汽車持有、聯立方程式。

並列摘要


Abstract The number of mobile vehicles in Taiwan, especially motorcycles, has been increasing for many years. The trend of using motorcycles for private communication has also been discovered in many other Asian countries. Since the mixed traffic flow causes more motorcycle-related problems, the fluctuation trend of motorcycle ownership has been looked into. Furthermore, factors that affect motor vehicle ownerships and future trend of total motorcycles are important bases for government policies. For this reason, this study defines different motorcycle ownership phases according to observed trends of motor vehicles in Japan. Each phase with numbers of motorcycles and cars represents a country’s mobility and economy indexes. The recent development trend in Vietnam is found to be similar to Taiwan and requires careful attention to the rapid increase of motorcycles. In past studies, car and motorcycle ownerships are found to be inter-replaceable. From this starting point, this study investigates on the relationship between cars and motorcycles in Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung by utilizing a simultaneous equation model. In addition, whether or not the development of public transportation will affect private transportation modes has been examined. The results show the replaceable relationship in a household between car ownership, motorcycle ownership and the number of public transportation users in Taipei. In Taichung, household car ownership would affect household motorcycle ownership and the number of public transportation users. The number of public transportation users is affected indirectly by the number of household car licenses. Furthermore, income is not the main factor for motor vehicle ownerships. On the other hand, direct relationship between car ownership and motorcycle ownership has been discovered in Kaohsiung. However, income does not affect household car and motorcycle ownership. The simultaneous equation model has shown the indirect and direct relations between motorcycle ownership, car ownership and the number of public transportation users and has proved to have fewer errors than a Poisson model. Lastly, solving the collinear problem between factors by principal component analysis has allowed data that are collected in Taiwan be aggregated into building a car and motorcycle ownership model. Although the MAPE of the regression is fewer in errors than the simultaneous equation model, both are within satisfactory ranges in the goodness test. Key Words:Motorcycle ownership; Car ownership; Simultaneous Equation Model

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


林虹伶(2011)。汽機車持有與使用模式之探討-以澳門地區為例〔碩士論文,國立交通大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6842%2fNCTU.2011.00210
邱子揚(2010)。自行車持有與使用之研究-以中山區與大安區為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2010.10690
張棕凱(2008)。時間數列與灰預測模型的比較-以台灣自行車成車出口產值為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2008.10287
吳佳紋(2006)。探討GDP成長與汽機車成長之因果關係〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2006.02020

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