緬甸外國直接投資與經濟成長之動態關係

李娟娟

doi:10.6342/NTU201601429

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緬甸外國直接投資與經濟成長之動態關係

The Dynamic Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Myanmar

李娟娟 , Masters　　Advisor：雷立芬　　

英文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU201601429

外國直接投資；經濟成長；誤差修正模型； Granger因果關係；緬甸； Foreign Direct Investment ； Economic Growth ； Error Correction Model ； Granger-Causality ； Myanmar

Abstract │ Reference (59) │ Altmetrics

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This study has employed error-correction model (ECM) and standard Granger-causality test to examine the dynamic relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Myanmar using annual time series data over the period 1971-2014.
The empirical results show that time series of FDI and GDP are non-stationary at level but they become stationary at first difference. The Co-integration results establish the existence of a long-run relationship between the two variables. 
From the results of ECM, there exists a uni-directional long-run causality running from GDP to FDI and the coefficient of error correction term is negative and highly significant at 1% level, confirming the long run equilibrium relationship between the two variables. In the short run, the associated coefficient of lagged FDI and lagged GDP are all statistically significant, implying a bi-directional causality between FDI and GDP. The Standard Granger-causality results reveal that FDI has a significant positive impact on GDP in the short run but not vice versa. In general, the results can be interpreted as although FDI has a direct effect on economic growth in the short run but economic growth performance is an important driving force of FDI inflows into Myanmar in the long run.

Reference ( 59 ) 〈TOP〉

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連結：
Alfaro, L. (2003). Foreign direct investment and growth: Does the sector matter. Harvard Business School, 2003, 1-31.
連結：
Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets. Journal of international Economics, 64(1), 89-112.
連結：
Balasubramanyam, V. N., Salisu, M., & Sapsford, D. (1996). Foreign direct investment and growth in EP and IS countries. The economic journal, 92-105.
連結：
Basu, P., Chakraborty, C., & Reagle, D. (2003). Liberalization, FDI, and growth in developing countries: A panel cointegration approach. Economic Inquiry, 41(3), 510-516.
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