小泉與安倍政府對中政策的比較分析

Comparative Analysis of Koizumi and Abe Government’s China Policy

陳韋安(Wei-An Chen)

指導教授 ： 陳明通

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.10915

摘要

日中兩國自1972年建交以來，雙邊關係忽冷忽熱雖有前例可循，惟小泉與安倍兩位前後任首相，不僅在自民黨內屬同一派系，且均被視為極右派的政治人物；然而，從小泉政府過渡到安倍政府，為何兩國在一夕之間從水火不容的對立關係，轉變為戰略互惠的友好夥伴關係，對日本政治與日中關係未深入研究者，確實難以理解其變化之堂奧。目前有關日本現代對中政策研究的學術論文探討主題多集中在小泉政府時期，資料豐富完整且易於搜尋，惟均僅針對小泉時期日中關係的外交決策模式、政策類型等進行討論，並未將小泉與其他首相對中政策進行比較分析。
因此，本論文採取比較研究方法，針對小泉與安倍政府對中政策決策過程的差異進行分析，以及比較其反映在兩國敏感議題上的應處作為與態度。主要研究分析方向：（一）日本國內政治傳統生態及決策過程中，首相、政黨派閥及官僚體系等決策關係者之權力消長，對政治決策主導過程與型態之影響；（二）日中高層互動往來關係密切程度，對日本政府對中政策的基本關鍵態度形成之影響；（三）日本政府對中政策強弱的差異取向，反映在日中最為敏感之歷史（靖國神社與教科書問題）、主權（釣魚台與東海天然氣田開發問題）與安保（日中軍事關係與美日安保問題）等議題上的應處作為。
本論文研究結果顯示：(一)官邸主導強弱取決於領導人特質：日本國內政治生態在歷經90年代起的三階段行政改革及中央機關組織調整後，政治決策主導權已逐漸朝首相端集中，官邸主導的政治型態已大致成型，惟其強弱關鍵取決於首相個人領導權威與風格。小泉與安倍政治立場同質性極高，惟兩人領導風格與個性迥異，小泉被視為「提案型」的主動領導人，安倍則被視為「審核型」的被動領導人，因而導致對中政策決策出現極大差異。(二)對抗有助取得妥協談判籌碼：小泉任內對中共方面堅不妥協的強硬對抗態度，導致中共領導階層、國內涉外部門與駐日使領館在對日工作上已陷入束手無策的顏面盡失窘境；不過，此一狀況卻為安倍上台後對中採取的緩和妥協政策，以及推動雙邊政治與外交關係改善等工作，累積相當可觀的談判籌碼與妥協空間。
本論文選擇以小泉與安倍為研究對象主體的關鍵考量，係著眼於兩者對中共威脅均抱持強烈反彈與警戒，惟卻在對中政策上出現強硬對抗與緩和妥協兩種截然不同態度；不過，小泉首相任期長達近5年半，而安倍首相任期則僅約1年，兩者首相任期長短差別極大，確實在研究上會造成政策評估觀察時間不對稱之問題；此外，兩者與派閥、官僚檯面下權力競合關係之隱私資料，以及兩政權對中政策主要內容與實際考量之官方資料等，其取得均極為困難，故本研究僅能廣泛參考官方公開訊息，以及專家評析或輿論報導等資料，惟其能夠接近實情原貌的程度亦有其極限。
過去日本政治研究因自民黨長期一黨優位的穩定執政局勢，導致新的研究架構建立不易且難以吸引學者研究興趣，且日本無論在外交或軍事的研究領域上，均被視為美國研究的重要附屬對象，卻難以成為研究報告的主體對象；惟在小泉首相上任後，日本傳統的派閥與官僚影響力出現大幅衰退現象，且在小泉首相卸任後的第3年，自民黨也再度失去政權，此顯示日本國內政治生態已出現革命性的變動趨勢，因而從事日本研究學者宜儘速建立對日本21世紀政治研究的新理論架構，俾因應日本日益加速的政治制度演變情勢，以及擴大學術界對日本政治演變的關注與重視。

關鍵字

小泉 ； 安倍 ； 對中政策 ； 日本政治 ； 日中關係

並列摘要

Since Japan established diplomatic relations with China in 1972, the bilateral relations have had its ups and downs. Strangely speaking, although the 89th and 90th Prime Ministers of Japan, Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzō Abe, are both in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and considered to be far-right politicians, the relations between Chinese and Japanese governments transform from tension to friendly strategic partnership as the Junichiro Koizumi administration is succeed by the Shinzō Abe administration. For those who do not conduct any deep research on Japanese politics and the Sino-Japanese relationship, such a change may be difficult to understand. For the time being, most of the academic studies concerning modern Japanese policy towards China focus on mainly the Junichiro Koizumi administration and the data is abundant, complete and easy to locate. However, these studies are restricted to discuss Junichiro Koizumi administration’s decision-making model of foreign policy and the policy types of Sino-Japanese relationship. Studies on the analysis and the comparison of Junichiro Koizumi with the other Prime Ministers of Japan in terms of their administrations’ foreign policy towards China are rare to find.
This study adopts comparative method, aimed at analyzing the difference between the Junichiro Koizumi administration and the Shinzō Abe administration in terms of their policy-making process towards China and comparing how the former and the latter differ in their handling and attitude towards sensitive Sino-Japanese issues. The analysis will focus on the following issues: (i) In the domestic political tradition and ecology as well as the process of decision making, how the empowerment of all parties related to decision making such as the Prime Minister, political parties, and the bureaucracy affects the process and the style of policy making; (ii) How the close interaction between Japanese and Chinese senior officials affect Japanese government’s attitude and policy toward China; (iii) How the difference of Japanese government’s policy and attitude toward China reflects on its handling of the most sensitive issues in terms of history (i.e. Yasukuni Shrine and the textbook issue), authority (i.e. Diaoyu Islands and the drilling of gas fields in the East China Sea), and security (i.e. Sino-Japanese military relations and Japan-U.S. security issues).
This study result is explained as follows: (i) The Prime Minister’s features of leadership shall determine the stance of the cabinet. After experiencing three phases of administrative reform and the organizational restructuring of central government, Japan has gradually placed its decision of policy-making in the hands of the Prime Minister since the 1990s. In this case, the authority and leadership style of the Prime Minister shall determine the political direction of the cabinet. Although Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzō Abe share extremely similar political viewpoints, their leadership styles and personalities are not alike at all. For example, the former is an active leader who likes to propose solutions, while the latter is considered a passive leader who is in charge of reviewing solutions. That’s why their policies toward China are so different. (ii) The Junichiro Koizumi administration refuses to compromise with China and leaves the Chinese government and the China Embassies in Japan little space of negotiation. However, such a circumstance is completely different during the reign of the Shinzō Abe administration. The latter adopts a soft and compromising policy toward China and is aimed at improving their bilateral relationship in the political and diplomatic manner. In other words, the Shinzō Abe administration establishes a rather solid foundation to promote the cooperation between the Japanese and Chinese governments.
The reason why this study adopts Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzō Abe as the study subject is that both of them are strongly cautious and oppose to the threats of China. Yet, they adopt very different policies and attitudes toward China, with one of them strong and unyielding and the other gentle and compromising. However, Junichiro Koizumi serves as the Prime Minister of Japan for five and half years, while Shinzō Abe is in the position for one year. This may cause the issue of asymmetric observation time to evaluate any political measures in this study. On the other hand, it is extremely difficult to obtain private information of the two Prime Ministers, their political party, and the bureaucracy concerning the power and cooperation relationship along with the main content and the practical concerns of the policy toward China. In this case, this study has to broadly collect information made to the public, experts’ criticisms, and news reports, hoping to discover the real truth. Yet, such a practice knows its limits.
In the past, Liberal Democratic Party of Japan used to be the party dominating the government. Therefore, it is difficult to found any new study structure and to attract people’s attention to do further researches. Moreover, the studies of Japanese diplomacy and military forces are always viewed as an important subsidiary subject by researchers conducting American studies. However, in the reign of the Junichiro Koizumi administration, the influence of traditional Japanese parties and bureaucracy has been in great decline. Furthermore, three years after Junichiro Koizumi has retired from the office, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan loses the major election again, indicating that the political ecology of Japan has experienced a radical change. Therefore, it is suggested that scholars doing researches on Japanese politics should establish a new theoretical structure in the 21st century to deal with the rapid change of Japanese political schemes and to attract more academic attention to the transformation of Japanese politics.

並列關鍵字

Koizumi ； Abe ； China Policy ； Japanese Politics ； Sino-Japanese Relationship

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