新竹縣族群與總統選舉之空間分析（2000-2012）

Spatial Analysis of Ethnic and Presidential Election in Hsinchu County（2000-2012）

洪慧萍(HUI-PING HUNG)

指導教授 ： 鄧志松 ； 唐代彪

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.11311

摘要

本研究主要探討族群與新竹縣總統選舉之關係，透過空間分析方法針對2000年至2012年新竹縣4次總統選舉結果進行分析，以新竹縣182個村里為分析單位，控制經社背景、津貼政策、居住環境及空間變數後，觀察族群與新竹縣總統選舉之關係。
研究發現，新竹縣客家人對於政黨支持並非一致，原則上客家人口比高之地區傾向支持國民黨，然而新埔鎮、峨眉鄉受到津貼政策、居住環境及鄰近效應等因素影響而例外。此外，老年人口比愈高或村里具陳抗事件之地區，則民進黨獲票率愈高。再者，族群聚集之地區有支持特定政黨之傾向，如五峰、尖石鄉等原住民聚集之地區，傾向支持國民黨；湖口鄉裝甲兵營區及老舊眷村附近等外省族群聚集之地區，傾向支持國民黨；臨海村里經濟條件不佳之地區，傾向支持民進黨。顯示新竹縣總統選舉受到族群因素、津貼政策、居住環境及鄰近效應等因素影響。

關鍵字

新竹縣 ； 族群 ； 空間分析 ； 空間自相關 ； 鄰近效應

並列摘要

This study investigates the relationship between ethnic groups and presidential elections in Hsinchu County. Through spatial analysis, the results of 4 presidential elections (from year 2000 to 2012) are analyzed using “village” as an analysis unit. 182 villages are examined, with control factors consisting of socioeconomic background, subsidy policy, living environment and spatial variables to observe the relevance between ethnic groups and presidential election in Hsinchu County.
This research found that the Hakka population does not show a consistent preference in supporting a specific political party. In principle, areas with a higher Hakka population are prone to be supportive of the Chinese National Party (KMT), with exceptions in Xinpu and Ermei Townships, where effective factors such as subsidy policy, living environment and proximity effect are in force. Moreover, villages with higher senior population or histories of protest movements show a greater support for the democratic progressive party (DPP). Furthermore, areas such as Wufeng and Jianshih Townships, consisting mainly of aboriginal population, are known to share a distinct preference in supporting of the KMT. In armored camp area in Hukou Township and older military communities with mainlander population are also in favor of supporting the KMT. However, sea-front villages with an economic disadvantage seem to be supportive of the DDP. Observing from aforementioned cases, it is clear that the presidential elections in the Hsinchu County are not only influenced by various ethnic population, but also factors like subsidy policy, living environment, proximity effect and so on and so forth.

並列關鍵字

Hsinchu County ； ethnic ； Spatial Analysis ； spatial autocorrelation ； neighborhood effect

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