全球暖化、氣候變遷等極端氣候現象頻繁發生,促使世界各國開始關注劇烈氣候所導致的災害及其應變措施。公共運輸系統早已作為衡量都市流動性、可及性及永續發展之重要指標,但各國政府對於運輸系統與防救災體制之整合卻依然有限。天災發生期間,公共運輸系統不僅承擔疏導人潮的責任,也同時背負車輛、乘客安全受災害威脅之風險成本。因此,如何透過防災相關訊息,確實掌握行車風險並有效率地求解營運決策,對於各級指揮中心、主管部門及運輸業者而言都是一大挑戰。 本研究建立一公車防救災決策支援數學規劃模式,以災害風險模型及氣象資料分析公車路線上之道路狀況,並求解以提供業者具有最小化營運損失之營運決策支援方案。結果顯示,在決策支援模式的輔助下業者可綜合考量各種災害對於行駛路線之風險成本,並評估所有營運方案後選擇營運損失最小化之策略。本研究亦透過敏感度分析檢視各參數值對於決策結果之影響。分析結果顯示,由於災害造成之車輛價值損失十分顯著,模擬決策結果對於風險之規避較為顯著,故模式對於乘客需求量變化較不敏感,不會因需求量增加而貿然行駛高風險路段。另外,氣象預報之準確度對於模式合適性具有關鍵性之影響,氣象預報誤差將導致模式出現嚴重偏差,進而對業者產生鉅額損失。 本研究建立之決策支援模式,可於天災期間即時為公車業者提供各班次營運策略之參考,也可協助政府部門掌握並評估在線服務車輛繞道完成疏散作業之可行性。
Due to the impact of global climate change, governments around the world start paying attention to disasters caused by extreme weather and disaster response. The public transportation system is a critical indicator for assessing the mobility, accessibility, and sustainability of a city, but the integration between public transportation systems and disaster response systems has been ignored. During the natural disasters, the public transportation system not only bears the responsibility of diverting passengers but also bears the risk which vehicles and passengers being threatened by disasters. Therefore, how to accurately determine the risks and make decisions efficiently is a big challenge for government authorities and bus operators. This study aims to establish a bus disaster response decision support model to analyze the disaster conditions and provide the most effective decision to the operators. The results show that the bus operators can comprehensively consider the risk of various disasters for the bus route and evaluate all operational solutions to identify the most appropriate strategy. Sensitivity analyses show that vehicle value loss has a significant impact on decision making, and consequently, the model is less sensitive to the increase in passenger demand. Besides, the accuracy of weather forecasting has a critical impact on the model results. The error of the weather forecast will lead to severe deviations in the decision-making process, which might cause severe losses to the operators. The model developed can determine the operational plans of each shift for the operators in real time and allows the government to grasp the feasibility of the bus in service to assist in the evacuation operation.