臺灣禽流感疫情可能經濟影響之事前評估

翁振源

doi:10.6342/NTU.2007.03338

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臺灣禽流感疫情可能經濟影響之事前評估

The Potential Economic Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan

翁振源 , Masters　　Advisor：張靜貞　　Co-advisor ：徐世勳

英文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU.2007.03338

禽流感；可計算一般均衡模型；生產面衝擊；醫療資源運用；總體經濟影響；產業損失；服務業； Avian Flu ； CGE ； FluAid ； FluSurgevHospital Resource ； Economic Impact

Abstract │ Reference (226) │ Times Cited (1) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

This study analyzes the potential economic consequences of an outbreak of the avian influenza (H5N1) on Taiwan’s macro-economy and individual sectors. Because of the considerable uncertainty about the severity of the disease and with great concern of the world, we review all the domestic and foreign studies on the impact evaluation of the avian flu to construct the outbreak scenarios. The experience with the 2003 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, SARS) outbreak also provide the exposure data about how and to what extent to which an outbreak affects national economic activities. The information of the amount of deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits can be provided by the software designed by the Center for Disease Control of the United States under alternative assumptions of the infection rate and mortality rate.  Following the SARS experience, the pandemic also forces many workers to stay home, affects consumers’ confidence and changes consumption behavior. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate the possible damage brought by lowering domestic consumption, production, export, and labor demand.  
  The simulation results indicates that if the disease is confined within the poultry sector, then the impact on real GDP is around -0.01%~-0.09% where or labor demand is -0.02~-0.15%. Once it becomes a human-to-human pandemic, the CGE analysis, which allows for resource mobility and substitutions through price adjustments, predicts that the real GDP and labor demand would contract by 2.39%~3.83% and 1.25%~1.49%, respectively. As for the individual sector, the outbreak not only damages the poultry sector and its upstream and downstream industries, but also affects the service sectors including wholesale, retail, transportation, hotels, and healthcare services.

Reference ( 226 ) 〈TOP〉

Long-term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the
連結：
Barry, J. 2005. “1918 Revisited: Lessons and Suggestions
連結：
Mahmoud, eds., The Threat of Pandemic Influenza: Are we
連結：
Black, A., M. T. Sinclair, and G. Sugiyarto, 2003.
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“Quantifying the Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease on
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Times Cited (1) 〈TOP〉

邱顯彰(2015)。探討與比較不同食安事件對食品類股之宣告效果。臺灣大學農業經濟學研究所學位論文。2015。1-77。

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