未來南海衝突下台灣海軍戰略研究

Taiwan's navy in the South China Sea conflict Strategic Studies

宋吉峰(Chi-Feng Sung)

指導教授 ： 翁明賢

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.00189

摘要

近期南海群島的爭議成為世人矚目的焦點，尤其在美國採取新亞洲戰略之後，不斷釋放出公海航行自由權與多邊解決區域爭端的倡議。反之，主要當事國：北京雖然不滿華盛頓的作為，對於其與南海周邊國家的一連串軍事演習、以及東協國家與域外國家的戰略結盟，還是採取「以靜制動」立場，堅持「擱置爭議、共同開發」的原則，由衝突的雙邊當事國分別處理不同議題。至於，擁有南海最大島嶼「太平島」的中華民國，面對此種新形勢下，受到兩岸關係與區域安全態勢牽動，是否應該從新角度來思考台灣的軍事戰略、南海戰略，以及台灣海軍可以扮演的角色，並因此在軍事戰略與海軍戰略方面，建構何種「建軍」與「備戰」想定。
本文分析南海地緣戰略背景，瞭解區域衝突的結構性因素，亦即分析南海地緣位置，理解中國、美國、東協及台灣的戰略利益衝突性，導引美、中最終難以完全避免對抗的可能性。繼而從區域戰略層次，藉由軍事對抗下的宏觀思考，透過實證資料，分析未來南海軍事衝突的戰略類型，而在哪一種戰略型態下，可以創造出台灣海軍的契機為何？繼而提出台灣在國家戰略層次與海軍戰略的因應之道。

關鍵字

南中國海 ； 戰略類型 ； 海軍戰略 ； 第一島鏈次島鏈 ； 存在艦隊

並列摘要

In the recent controversy of the South Sea Islands become the focus of world attention, especially in the United States to adopt a new Asia strategy, continue to release the right to freedom of navigation on the high seas and multilateral initiatives to resolve regional disputes. On the others hand, the main parties: Although dissatisfaction with Washington as a series of military exercises with neighboring countries in the South China Sea, and the ASEAN countries with other countries of strategic alliances, or to take the stance of "inaction", adhere to "putting aside disputes and common development "principle, by the bilateral conflict the parties were dealing with different issues. As with the largest island of the South China Sea " Taiping Island" Republic of China, the face of this new situation, by the cross-strait relations and regional security situation in the affected should be from a new angle to think about Taiwan's military strategy and Taiwan Navy can play a role in military strategy and naval strategy to construct what the "navy" and "preparing" to set the threshold.
This paper analyzes the South China Sea, the geo-strategic context, understanding the structural factors of the conflict in the region, that is, analysis of the South China Sea geopolitical position, understanding the strategic conflict of interest in China, United States, ASEAN and Taiwan, and guided the United States, and ultimately impossible to completely avoid the possibility of confrontation . Then from the regional strategic level, by the military confrontation of macro thinking, through the empirical data, analyze the strategic type of future military conflict in the South China Sea, in what kind of strategy types, to create the opportunity of the Taiwan Navy? And then the Taiwan at the national strategic level naval strategy in response approach.

並列關鍵字

South China Sea ； strategic of type ； naval strategy ； the first-sub island chain ； Fleet in being

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