Logit模型預測2006年高雄市長選舉

黃羿菁

doi:10.6846/TKU.2007.00269

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Logit模型預測2006年高雄市長選舉

Forecast Kaohsiung mayor election by logit model in 2006

黃羿菁 , Masters　　Advisor：張紘炬　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6846/TKU.2007.00269

選舉預測； Logit模型； Election Forecasting ； Logit model

Abstract │ Reference (19) │ Times Cited (1) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

This study adopts Logit model to perform data analysis and interpret the results. Logit model is conducted by using the sampling survey method and the study range includes the Kaohsiung city area. We set our study target as the voters of the election for Kaohsiung city magistrate in 2006. we apply Logit model method to forecast the predicted voting rate for every candidate, and apply the population variances to understand the diverse voting situations of different voter groups. Results in this study:
1.In the analysis of Logit model method, five explanatory variables, the administrative area and gender, and party partial, and education, and the province and county of one's family register are apparently distinguished from voting tendency.
2.The image of the candidate itself will influence his/her support from the voters. With the background of labor activity, Chu, Chen gain more supports from female voters and voters with less education background. Chun-ying, Huang , as a scholar, gains more support from voters with higher education background on the other hand.
3.Provincialism can indeed affect the vote. Native voters support the two candidates equally and immigrant voters obviously incline to vote . Chun-ying, Huang
4.According to the sample structure analysis, the hidden ballots in each one of the category take a high percentage at around thirty to forty percent. The accuracy of the prediction will be affect greatly by the hidden ballot
5.The actual result of the vote showed that the vote to Chu, Chen slightly surpass the vote to. Chun-ying, Huang. Nevertheless, the prediction was . Chun-ying, Huang would gain more vote than Chu, Chen. The difference came from the fact the Chu, Chen’s supporters were less willing to show their support before the vote and also some after effect due to the investigation to Ying-jeou, Ma’s special expense case.

Reference ( 19 ) 〈TOP〉

5.范凌嘉，台灣縣市長選舉預測模型之研究: 一個基礎模型的建立及其應用，政治大學政治學研究所碩士論文，民國88年。
連結：
7.張世英，選舉預測方法的實證研究，成功大學統計學研究所碩士論文，民國88年。
連結：
1.周應龍;盛杏湲(2005)，選樣偏誤模型在選舉預測上的應用，選舉
連結：
2.俞振華;蔡佳泓(2006)，如何利用全國性民調推估地方民意?多層次貝式定理估計模型與分層加權的應用，台灣政治學刊，10卷1
連結：
3.盛治仁(2000)，總統選舉預測探討－以情感溫度計預測未表態選民的應用，選舉研究，7卷2期，p75-107。
連結：

Times Cited (1) 〈TOP〉

周家如(2007)。臺灣MBA行銷研究碩士論文研究方法之評估。淡江大學管理科學研究所碩士班學位論文。2007。1-108。

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