銀行消費性貸款違約風險分析與二順位信貸之研究—以S銀行為例

游竣凱

doi:10.6846/TKU.2015.00352

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銀行消費性貸款違約風險分析與二順位信貸之研究—以S銀行為例

Research of Analysis of Bank Consumption of Loan Risk and Second-Mortgage—using S bank as an example

游竣凱 , Masters　　Advisor：鮑世亨　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6846/TKU.2015.00352

消費性貸款；逾期；違約；羅吉斯迴歸；二順位信貸； consumption loans ； overdue ； breach ； Logistic Regression ； second in line credit

Abstract │ Reference (24) │ Altmetrics

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Credit extension is one of the main earning sources for banks among many businesses. In order to improve the profit, banks offer consumer credit loans and second-in-line mortgage and other high spread products. Based on the micro-finance borrowers of domestic well-known S bank, this study extracted 646 effective samples, using SPSS statistical software to conduct quantitative analysis, which found that the "real estate set", "seniority" and "age", the three variables have higher influence on the overdue behavior. That is to say, if the bank has set second-in-line mortgage of real estate, and the loan applicant has longer seniority and age, the possibility of overdue behavior is lower. 
The consumer credit loan business has become increasingly fiercely competitive today. This study designed appropriate loan scheme for middle and low class groups (referring to those who gain yearly income between 0.5 to 1 billion, and are under unstable work condition, but because the borrowers have certain economic basis associated with previous job). Although this research shows that working seniority less than three years will lead to higher rate of overdue, if such loan applicants can voluntarily provide their owner-occupied real estate for financial institutions to set second-in-line mortgage, to strengthen the guarantee of bank creditor rights, then different micro-credit loan products with different interest rate policies or limited strategy of repaying periods should be designed aiming at this kind of customers, in order to pursue high profit.

Reference ( 24 ) 〈TOP〉

鄭鈺銑，(2010)，個人信用卡評分模式之研究-以國內某銀行信用卡為例，國立臺北大學企業管理學系碩士論文。
連結：
陳家彬、賴怡洵，(2001)，臺灣地區銀行放款有無擔保之決定因素－Logistic模型之實證分析，管理評論，二十卷一期：129-159。
連結：
陳家彬、江惠櫻、賴怡洵，(2003)，商業銀行對企業授信決策考量因素與授信品質之關係，管理評論，二十二卷二期：1-23。
連結：
Klayman,J. (1988), ”Cue Discovery in Probabilistic Environments: Uncertainty and Experimentation Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition”, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning,Memory, and Cognition., Vol. 14(2), P.317-330。
連結：
Leonard D.Stern ，(2011) 「SPSS統計分析圖解式教學手冊」陳正立譯，旗標出版社。

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