美國失業率對美國國會選舉的影響

郭芸瑄

doi:10.6846/TKU.2013.00705

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美國失業率對美國國會選舉的影響

The Effect of US Unemployment Rate on US Congressional Elections

郭芸瑄 , Masters　　Advisor：柯大衛　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6846/TKU.2013.00705

美國失業率；美國國會選舉；固定效果迴歸分析；二元評定模型； US Unemployment Rate ； US Congressional Elections ； Fixed Effect Panel Regression ； Binary Logit Model

Abstract │ Reference (79) │ Altmetrics

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The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections, Republicans gained control of the chamber, picking up a net total of 63 seats and erasing the gains Democrats made in 2006 and 2008. We also saw the rise of the Tea Party movement ushering in many conservative newcomers to the House. And this was due to the high unemployment rate and bad economic conditions, but why the unemployment rate so important and can make a major change in election? The empirical model we propose to use here is actually a unique combination of two different types of models – a fixed effect panel regression and a binary logit model. In the first stage a fixed effects panel regression model is estimated using the binary variable (1 = incumbent party returned to power and 0 = incumbent party is not returned to power).Hence, the single fixed effects variable described above is then introduced into a binary logit model involving the same set of explanatory variables as the linear probability model in the first stage. By doing so, a set of very specialized effects for the panel in question can be aligned with the logit model and a better analysis of the probability of reelection can be obtained. A conservative estimate shows that a rise in the unemployment rate of 2% and 4% across ALL congressional districts lowers the probability of the incumbent party being returned to office by about 3.6% and 8.4%, respectively. This effect is greatly magnified when a lagged dependent variable is added to the logit model. In such as case, a 2% increase in unemployment across all congressional districts lowers the average probability of return the incumbent party by 7.2%, while a 4% increase in unemployment reduces the probability by an impressive 18.5%.

Reference ( 79 ) 〈TOP〉

陸以正（2010），「美選舉翻盤保守派vs.自由派的勝利」，國家政策研究基金會。
連結：
程小綾、黃智聰（2005），「經濟投票與政黨輪替：以台灣縣市長選舉為例」，政治大學中山人文社會科學研究所碩士論文。
連結：
王鼎銘（2003），「政策認同下的投票效用與選擇：空間投票理論在不同選舉制度間的比較」，《選舉研究》，10（1），頁171-206。
連結：
盛杏湲、陳義彥(2003) ，「政治分歧與政黨競爭：2001年立法委員選舉的分析」10（1），頁7-40。
連結：
王柏燿(2004) ，「經濟評估與投票抉擇:以2001年立委選舉為例」，《選舉研究》，11（1），頁171-195。
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