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  • 學位論文

單一麥芽威士忌與調和式威士忌銷售趨勢之預測─以帝亞吉歐 台灣分公司為例

A Study of Single Malt Whisky and Blended Whisky Sales Forecasting – the Evidence of DIAGEO Taiwan Inc.

指導教授 : 李月華

摘要


本論文內容主要是介紹蘇格蘭威士忌的歷史,以及單一麥芽威士忌與調和式威士忌的分別,另外因為國人消費習慣的改變,逐漸接受量少質精且單價高的單一麥芽威士忌,本研究的目的有:(一) 預測台灣整體 Whisky產業未來的發展趨勢;(二) 預測Single Malt Whisky在台灣整體進口威士忌未來的成長情況;及(三) 擬建構銷售成長模型,提出對行銷預算或企劃的擬定有所助益。 本研究以Dickey-Fuller及Augmented Dickey-Fuller兩種單根檢定方法,檢定帝亞吉歐台灣分公司的銷售報表數字是否具有單根,藉以判定總體經濟指標與其銷售數字能否利用VAR模式及Johansen共整合檢定,檢定兩者之共整合關係,以期達成預測之目的,而研究的主要變數為:(一) 消費者物價指數;(二) 單一麥芽威士忌的銷售數字;及(三) 調和式威士忌的銷售數字等三變數,並試圖去了解上述變項間相互的影響。主要研究發現歸納成下列幾點: 一、VAR模型檢定為帝亞吉歐台灣分公司單一麥芽與調和式威士忌 銷售數字預測之最適配置。 二、台灣整體威士忌有銷售下滑的趨勢,主要因素可能為消費習慣 改變,或是物價上漲導致消費能力下降,亦或是其他如取締酒 駕日趨嚴苛所致。 三、本研究的資料量偏少,因此無法針對單一麥芽威士忌在台灣市 場未來的成長情況作有效的分析評估。 四、我國威士忌產品具有季節性效應,例如每年的十二月份總是銷 售量最好的時段。

並列摘要


This article is to introduce the history of Scotch whisky, the difference between single malt whisky and blended whisky. Besides consumers’ behavior have changed gradually from blended whisky as mainstream to accept rare with high quality but higher price single malt whisky. The purposes of this study are: (1) to forecast the trend of whisky industry in Taiwan, (2) to forecast the Single malt whisky category trend in Taiwan, and (3) to construct the sales develop model. This study is based on Dickey-Fuller and Augmented Dickey-Fuller two unit root test methods and Johansen’s cointegration test method to examines the relationship between sales figure of DIAGEO Taiwan and macro economic indicators in order to forecast sales trend for whisky category. The three major variables are: (1) Consumer price index, (2) Single malt whisky sales figure, and (3) Blended whisky sales figure, and intend to understand the interaction between the three major variables. Major findings in this study are listed: 1. VAR model examination is the best model to forecast DIAGEO Taiwan single malt and blended whisky sales. 2. Whisky category shown down trend in Taiwan may primarily due to change of consumers’ behavior, or the tax inflation caused the consumer ability dropped, or others like strict driving ban. 3. Due to limitation of category information, it is not possible to develop the effective forecast model of single malt whisky in Taiwan. 4. Sales figure trend shown that Whisky has significant seasonality, for example, December is always the peak season.

並列關鍵字

Time Series Cointegration Test Residual

參考文獻


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