資本流入對不動產價格之非線性探討-日本實證

Nonlinear Effect of Capital Inflow on Real Estate Price - Evidence in Japan

黃郁涵(Yu-Han Huang)

指導教授 ： 聶建中

共同指導教授 ： 林建甫(Chien-Fu Lin)

淡江大學/商管學院/財務金融學系碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00962

摘要

本研究旨在探討資本流入對不動產價格之影響，以日本為研究標的，透過非線性方法之平滑移轉模型，並以資本流入占GDP比率之變動率為門檻變數，探討經常帳、金融帳、與資本帳三種資本流入對日本不動產價格之影響，研究期間自1996年第一季至2014年第三季，共75筆季資料。
研究結果顯示，當三種帳分別占GDP比率之變動率小於門檻值時，該帳對日本土地價格皆為正相關：當三種帳分別占GDP比率之變動率大於門檻值時，該帳對日本土地價格皆轉為負相關。

關鍵字

資本流入 ； 經常帳 ； 金融帳 ； 資本帳 ； 不動產價格

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of capital inflow on estate price in Japan by using Smooth Transition Model of nonlinear method. Use change rate of capital inflow to GDP ratio as a threshold variable. The capital inflows were current account, financial account, and capital account. The research period was from the first quarter of 1996 to the third quarter of 2014 and totally 75 quarterly data were calculated.
When the change rate of each kind of capital inflows to GDP ratio is less than the threshold value, all of these accounts positively impact on the land price. When the change rate of each kind of capital inflows to GDP ratio is larger than the threshold value, they showed negative effects.

並列關鍵字

Capital Inflow ； Current Account ； Financial Account ； Capital Account ； Estate Price

參考文獻

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