台灣政黨體系的變遷：1986-2008

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台灣政黨體系的變遷：1986-2008

The changing process of Taiwan's party system:1986-2008

莊天憐 , Ph.D　　Advisor：劉義周　　

繁體中文

政黨體系；政黨體系變遷；社會分歧；政治菁英；選舉制度； party system ； the change of party system ； social cleavage ； political elites ； electoral system

Abstract │ Reference (576) │ Times Cited (2) │ Altmetrics

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The main theme of this thesis focuses on the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, the factors which effecting the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, and the trend of Taiwan’s party system in the future. The author use social cleavage theory、political elite theory and institutional theory to explain the changing process of Taiwan’s  party system. The author also uses two indexes including the vote-share of each party in every election, and the changing of voter’s party identification to observe the changing of Taiwan’s party system. This thesis tries to build a general model to explain the developing process of Taiwan’s party system and predict the future trend of Taiwan’s party system.
After observing the election outcomes of each party and the changing of voter’s party identification, this thesis points out four important time points of Taiwan’s party system changing. The first time point is the presence of DPP in 1986, the second time point is the presence of NP in 1993, the third time point is the presence of PFP in 2000 and the presence of TSU in 2001, the fourth time point is the changing of electoral rule of legislative election in 2008.
About the changing factor, in spite of the new party presence in each changing time point, the presence of DPP is due to the constitutional environment which the authoritarian regime transferred into democracy. The presence of NP、PFP and TSU are the outcome of the separation of political elites. The changing of party system in 2008 is mainly effected by electoral system, not only the new parties can’t survive, but the existing small parties also disappear.
About the stable factor, during the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, there’s always a clearly distinction between “blue” and ”green”. Underneath the main stream of the confrontation between “blue” and “green”, Taiwan’s party system has long been effected by the cleavage structure which mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. The pan-green group basically maintains about 30% of vote share, the pan-blue group has more than 40% of vote share, the remaining 20% more of vote share is the key point for the struggle of pan-green and pan-blue forces. The most important factor in this confrontation process is the social and issue cleavage mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. Meanwhile the political elites are consequently manipulating the cleavage structure in every election process, in order to find some spaces in the ideological spectrum to form new parties. In addition to the SNTV electoral system allows small parties to appear and survive. That’s the reason why Taiwan’s party system changes over time. But in 2008, the changing of electoral system has the decisive influence and turn Taiwan’s party system into the two-party system.
In the trend of future development, the research shows that, no matter in party’s vote share、party support rate or electoral system, KMT seems gradually having a leading advantage to get more than 50% of vote share. DPP has about 40% of vote share. If no more new issue or political-social cleavages to cut the existing party system, in the two-head executive constitutional structure and MMM electoral system, the interactions of political elites will tend to a consolidation of the two-party system which including a pan-blue force presented by KMT, and a pan-green force presented by DPP.

Reference ( 576 ) 〈TOP〉

1989 〈台灣的政治轉型與反對運動〉，《台灣社會研究季刊》，第二卷第一期，頁71-116。
連結：
1989 〈威權侍從政體下的台灣反對運動：民進黨社會基礎的社會解釋〉，《台灣社會研究季刊》，第二卷第一期，頁117-43。
連結：
2000 〈台灣民主化與政黨體系的變遷：菁英與群眾的選舉連結〉，《台灣政治學刊》，第四期，頁3-56。
連結：
1998 〈搜尋台灣民眾統獨態度的動力：一個個體動態模型的建立〉，《台灣政治學刊》，第三期，頁65-11
連結：
2004 〈多席次選舉中政黨的分合：以台灣區域立委選舉為例〉，《選舉研究》，第十一卷第一期，頁127-170。
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