中古屋及預售屋房價指數之建立、評估與整合─台北都會區之實證分析

洪御仁

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中古屋及預售屋房價指數之建立、評估與整合─台北都會區之實證分析

The Establishment, Evaluation and Integration of Existing and Pre-sales Housing Price Index in the Taipei Metropolitan Area

洪御仁 , Masters　　Advisor：張金鶚　　

繁體中文

房價指數；特徵價格；領先落後；因果關係； Housing Price Index ； Hedonic Price ； Lead-Lag ； Granger Causality

Abstract │ Reference (36) │ Times Cited (4) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

There are many real-estate related price indices established in various formation of datum, submarkets and modeling, providing different kinds of price information. But the process itself may be a victim of error, hence affecting the precision of price indices and cause discrepancy between price indices’ variation and correlative market information, therefore the representativeness of real-estate related price indices must be clarified.
In this study, we observe the commonly used Sinyi Housing Price Index (existing housing) and Cathay Real-Estate Price Index(pre-sales and new housing), and discovered that Sinyi Housing Price Index is incapable of reflecting the recent boom in the real-estate market. The Granger Causality test result of these two housing price indices(HPI) is inconsequent to relevant theory and empirical studies, therefore attribute this to the error within the establishment of HPI. Then, we reestablish existing housing HPI of Taipei city and Taipei county by using government and enterprise organized data. In comparison to Sinyi Housing Price Index, our newly established HPI cohere with correlative market information. And last, for future application of real-estate market information, we integrate empirical studies in the past with ours and examine its lead-lag relation with Cathay Real-Estate Price Index. The Granger Causality test result corresponds to relevant theory and empirical studies, furthermore, we found that the time-gap between Cathay Real-Estate Price Index and the Integrated existing housing HPI in Taipei city is 1-season, and 2-season in Taipei county.

Reference ( 36 ) 〈TOP〉

白金安、張金鶚，(1996)，〈預期景氣變動對預售屋與成屋價格差異影響之研究〉，中國財務學刊，第三卷，第二期，99-114頁。
連結：
林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚，(1996)，〈住宅價格指數之研究-以台北市為例〉，住宅學報，第四期，1-30頁。
連結：
張金鶚、范垂爐，(1991)，〈房地產真實交易價格之研究〉，住宅學報，第一期，75-97頁。
連結：
黃佳鈴、張金鶚，(2005)，〈從房地價格分離探討地價指數之建立〉，台灣土地研究，11月，8:2，73-106頁。
連結：
Bourassa, S.C., Hoesli, M. and Peng, V.S, (2003),“Do housing submarket really matter?”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol.12, pp.12-28.
連結：

Times Cited (4) 〈TOP〉

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