聯合國京都議定書清潔發展機制之溫室氣體減量專案方法學及審議模式研析

Study on Methodologies and Validation Model for UN/KP/CDM GHG Reduction Projects

吳銘修(Ming-Shiou Wu)

指導教授 ： 胡憲倫 ； 申永順

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境工程與管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2011.00232

摘要

京都議定書之清潔發展機制(Clean Development Mechanism, CDM)是唯一附件一與非附件一國家間可進行之溫室氣體彈性減量機制，亦為目前國際間推動最為積極並有具體成果之機制。為確保國內實施之計畫型減量活動所獲得碳權商品之有效性，CDM整體運作方式尤其是外加性(additionality)論證之規範，對我國產業現階段所推動之自願減量工作，甚具參考價值。本研究旨在彙整CDM已核准公告之各類減量計畫的計畫類型、方法學(Methodology)、計畫設計文件(Project Design Document, PDD)，以及計畫審議方式進行研析，並初擬出適用於國內發展之減量計畫類型外加性規範之架構，之後經由專家問卷確認，提出產業具體可行之減量計畫類型與外加性論證的建議，供國內各界參考。
本研究藉由兩階段問卷進行調查，首先應用模糊德爾菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method, FDM)之專家問卷確認初擬之架構，之後進行模糊分析層級程序法(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, FAHP)以決定各減量計畫類型及其外加性規範之權重值。結果顯示，適用於國內之減量計畫類型依序為「天然氣發電計畫」(0.295)，「能效提升計畫」(0.286)，「汽電共生計畫」(0.177)，「含氟溫室氣體減量計畫」(0.102)，「風力發電計畫」(0.078)，「水力發電計畫」(0.062)，外加性規範方面，各減量類型之間差異不大，最重要均為「法律規範識別」和「投資分析」，其次為「投資障礙」及「技術障礙」，重要性最低之項目為「普遍性分析」。最後，根據此結果並參考國際案例做法以及考量國內現況，分別提供各減量計畫類型之外加性論述之建議。在法律規範識別，本研究建議可用國內尚無相關強制性法規要求來做論述；在投資分析，建議由計畫開發者依自身之財會制度進行評估引用之投資分析方法來做論述；在障礙分析，目前各減量計畫類型均面臨投資與技術障礙，可用初始成本太高、缺乏相關技術與設備來做論述；在普遍性分析，目前各減量計畫類型於國內均無普遍性發展，建議以計畫活動占整體發電裝置容量比率較低，或因高風險高成本造成計畫活動不普遍來做論述。

關鍵字

清潔發展機制 ； 方法學 ； 外加性 ； 模糊德爾菲法 ； 模糊分析層級程序法

並列摘要

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of Kyoto Protocol is the only one greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission reduction mechanism that Annex I and non-Annex I countries can collaborate with, and it is also currently the most popular and productive one. To ensure the effectiveness of the carbon right from GHGs emission reduction activities in Taiwan, the operation mode of CDM, particularly the tool for the demonstration and assessment of additionality should be able to assist Taiwan's industry in promoting the voluntary emission reduction activities. Hence, this study intends to provide a feasible framework for fulfilling the additionality norms of carbon reduction projects which can be used in Taiwan. A draft framework was proposed based on compiling various types of approved GHGs reduction projects, methodology, Project Design Document (PDD), and validation models of CDM. A two-stage expert questionnaire was developed for this purpose. In the first stage, the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) was applied to confirm and finalize the framework, which followed by the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) for determining the weightings of the different types of additionality norms of GHGs emission reduction projects.
The results indicate that the most suitable types of GHGs reduction project for Taiwan are natural gas power project (0.295), energy efficiency project (0.286), cogeneration project (0.177), fluorinated GHGs reduction project (0.102), wind power project (0.078), and hydroelectric power project (0.062). Regarding additionality norms, the results show that there is no significant difference between different types of GHGs emission reduction projects; the most important one is identification of alternatives to the project activity or investment analysis, followed by investment barriers or technological barriers, and the least important one is common practice analysis. Finally, based on the results of this study, the practices of international cases and the situation of Taiwan, several suggestions for demonstration of the additionality are proposed. For the identification of alternatives to the project activity, currently there are no mandatory laws and regulations related to these GHGs reduction projects in Taiwan. For the investment analysis, it is suggested that the project developers should assess the investment analysis methods they adopted based on their own financial systems. For the barrier analysis, investment and technological barriers are commonly seen, hence, high initial investment cost or lack of technologies and equipments can be used. For the common practice analysis, these GHGs reduction projects are not common in Taiwan now, it is suggested that the propotion of the reduction activities of the project to the total installed capacity is low, or the project activities are not commonly seen due to high risks and high costs can be used for demonstration.

並列關鍵字

Clean Development Mechanism ； Methodology ； Additionality ； Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) ； Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)

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