專家系統配置翡翠水庫集水區最佳管理作業之研究

Exploring Best Management Practice allocation in Feitsui reservoir watershed by employing an expert system.

周宜蓁(Yi-Chen Chou)

指導教授 ： 朱子偉

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2012.00350

摘要

翡翠水庫供應大台北地區之民生用水，維護好水質一直是管理單位努力的目標。然而根據翡翠水庫1998至2009年的監測資料顯示，在此12年間卡爾森指標呈優養狀態有10個月之多，因此若欲降低營養鹽負荷對河川及水庫水質優養化所帶來的衝擊及有效控制非點源污染，在集水區內適當地點設置合宜的最佳管理作業(Best management practices, BMPs)，將是最有效的作為。
本研究旨在開發一專家系統以判定翡翠水庫集水區內之污染潛勢及其肇因，並建立集水區最佳管理作業的配置。本研究首先收集相關文獻並彙整非點源污染之專業知識及經驗，應用謂詞演算之邏輯概念撰寫判定集水區污染潛勢之規則，接著以集水區模式SWAT模擬翡翠水庫集水區之污染負荷分布驗證此專家系統的診斷分析結果，再依據當地污染潛勢特性結合水文及地文等條件，融合專業知識撰寫適當的最佳管理作業配置規則，最後應用ERDAS IMAGINE將謂詞演算程式化並呈現結果。研究中共將污染潛勢區分為：高侵蝕潛勢、高逕流潛勢及高營養鹽負荷潛勢三類；而專家系統配置之最佳管理作業則計有平台階段、滯留池、濱水植生緩衝帶、透水鋪面、街道清掃、田埂、人工溼地、填閑作物、暴雨逕流疏導土堤及等高帶狀耕作。
研究結果顯示，專家系統判定之污染區域，與集水區非點源模式SWAT模擬之污染區域有74%符合，驗證了本專家系統可有效判定集水區不同污染原因與潛勢區。專家系統之BMPs診斷結果統計發現，所建議之BMPs以平台階段及田埂佔為數最多，進一步經交叉分析後，若同一地點判定適當多種BMPs，則可依現地情況採用某一種或同時並行，加強土壤侵蝕控制及營養鹽負荷削減之功效。
本專家系統應用方便且適用於任何集水區診斷，並具有高度修正彈性以適用於不同集水區特性。未來使用這些規則，即可快速判斷出集水區之污染潛勢區，不同於數理模式需要輸入大量參數，且有參數不易取得，增加模擬之不確定性問題。最後專家系統依不同肇因建議設置適當的最佳管理作業，能更進一步建立集水區完整的最佳管理作業配置方案，期能有效地降低營養鹽負荷與水庫優養化風險，維持一個永續健康的水生態環境。

關鍵字

非點源污染 ； 專家系統 ； 最佳管理作業 ； 翡翠水庫 ； 謂詞演算 ； 營養鹽

並列摘要

Feitsui Reservoir provides people's livelihood water in the area of Taipei, maintain good water quality has been the objective of the management unit. However, according to Feitsui Reservoir monitoring data from 1998 to 2009, Carlson trophic state index appeared eutrophication status of as many as 10 months in this 12 years. Therefore, if want to reduce the impact of the nutrient load to the river and reservoir eutrophication and effective control of non-point source pollution, set the appropriate Best Management Practices (Best management practices, BMPs) at appropriate locations in the watershed, will be most effective.
This study will develop an expert system to determine the pollution potential of the Feitsui Reservoir area and its causes, and establish the configuration of the watershed’s best management practices. First, collection of relevant literature, compile non-point source pollution of the professional knowledge and experience. Application logic of the predicate calculus of the concept of writing to determine the pollution potential of the watershed of the rules, and then used watershed model SWAT simulated Feitsui Reservoir Watershed to verify the diagnosis of this expert system analysis the pollution loading distribution. According to local pollution potential, combined hydrological and physiographic conditions, integration expertise to write the appropriate Best Management Practices configuration rules. Finally, apply ERDAS IMAGINE to programmable the predicate calculus and presentation of the results. Research in pollution potential is divided into: high erosion potential, high runoff potential and high nutrient loading potential of three types; expert system configuration of the Best Management Practices include the terraces, detention pond, riparian buffer zone, permeable pavement, street cleaning, field border, constructed wetlands, catch crops, embankment to divert stormwater runoff, and contour stripcropping.
The results of the expert system to determine the contaminated area, 74 percent compliance, validation of this expert system can effectively determine the watershed pollution causes and potential contaminated areas of the watershed of non-point source model SWAT simulation. The statistics of the the BMPs diagnostic results of the expert system recommended BMPs to the terraces and field border for the largest number, and further after cross-analysis, the same locations to determine the appropriate variety of BMPs, according to the in situ to a certain kind or in parallel to enhance the effect of soil erosion control and nutrient loading reduce.
Convenience of this expert system application to be applied to any watershed of diagnosis, and it has highly correction flexibility to apply different watershed characteristics. The future use of these rules, it can quickly determine the watershed pollution potential, different from the mathematical model need to enter a large number of parameters, and parameters is not easy to obtain, increasing the uncertainty of the simulation. The final expert system according to different causes, set the appropriate Best Management Practices can be further watershed complete the Best Management Practices configuration, can effectively reduce the nutrient loading and reservoir eutrophication risk, maintain a healthy aquatic ecosystem.

並列關鍵字

best management practice ； expert system ； Feitsui reservoir ； non-point source pollution ； nutrient ； predicate caculus

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