因應氣候變遷之淹水災害容忍門檻值評估與調適策略

Assessing the Tolerant Threshold of Inundation Disaster and Associated Adaptive Strategies under the Impacts of Climate Change

陳世帆(Shih-Fan Chen)

指導教授 ： 朱子偉 ； 謝龍生

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2013.00310

摘要

受到氣候暖化之影響，台灣近年來極端颱洪災害事件發生頻繁，例如98年莫拉克颱風事件創下台灣所有氣象站中單日最大雨量紀錄，99年凡那比颱風事件則重創南台灣，雨量更勝莫拉克颱風。根據這些颱洪事件調查報告顯示，台灣降雨型態改變，降雨集中且強度變大，導致河川產生更大之洪水量，如此衝擊台灣地區各級河川排水設施之排洪功能，進而造成低窪地區嚴重淹水情形，危害人民生命安全且經濟損失都造成相當嚴重的重創，氣候變遷勢必對台灣淹水災害造成衝擊。
本研究主要目的在探討氣候變遷對於蘭陽溪流域淹水災害之衝擊並評估淹水災害容忍門檻值。研究過程中，首先模式以模擬蘭陽溪流域5、10、25、50、100和200年重現期降雨量，與國科會TCCIP計畫所提供未來氣候變遷條件下之模擬颱風降雨事件，分別應用淹水模式演算普通潮位及歷年來最大暴潮位邊界條件下之淹水境況，得到蘭陽溪流域不同降雨及潮位條件下之淹水潛勢圖；接著進一步應用TLAS Taiwan災害損失評估系統，模擬各重現期及氣候變遷後降雨事件之經濟損失及保全人口；再從水利設施、國民所得、避難場所與經濟損失等各項指標訂定淹水災害容忍門檻值。
研究最後針對氣候變遷所造成衝擊影響探討其改善方法及調適策略如滯洪池、河川疏浚及防潮大壩等，皆能達到減災效果，以助於未來淹水災害管理措施的制定及基本設施經費優先次序的安排，適度提高區域對淹水災害抵抗能力，在資源配置及救災上作更合理化的運用，以符合經濟效益之工程及非工程之方法減緩氣候變遷後洪水災害所帶來的衝擊，期望可提供相關單位做為未來減災規劃之參考。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 淹水模擬 ； 經濟損失 ； TLAS Taiwan ； 淹水災害 ； 調適策略

並列摘要

Due to global warming, the occurrence of natural disastrous events caused by extreme typhoons has increased in recent years in Taiwan. For instance, in the year of 1998, Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan and broke the largest single-day rainfall record in Taiwan’s. In the year of 1999, Typhoon Fanapi hit southern Taiwan with even more rainfall than Typhoon Morakot. According to these typhoon research reports, the rainfall patterns of typhoon events in Taiwan have changed. The rainfall intensity has increased and become more focused resulting in greater floods in the rivers. The changes of the rainfall patterns impacted the river drainage function of Taiwan's river drainage systems at all levels, thereby, causing more serious flood condition in low-lying areas, affecting serious losses to people's lives and creating economic losses. Climate changes impacts on Taiwan's flood system is evidential.
This study aimed to investigate climate change on flood control system of Lan Yang river flood control systems and to assess the impact of tolerance threshold. In this study, we first simulate the 5,10,25,50,100 and 200-year return period rainfall in Lan Yang river area, and utilize the simulated typhoon rainfall events under future climate change conditions offered by the National Science Council TCCIP, and use the flood tide and ordinary calculus bit over the years, the maximum storm surge flooding situation under boundary conditions, respectively to get the simulated of Lan Yang river flooding layers of different rainfall conditions. We then further utilize TLAS Taiwan disaster damage assessment system to simulate the after the return period rainfall events and climate change and the preservation of the economic loss of population; then from the water conservancy facilities, national income, shelter and other indicators of economic losses flood control system set tolerance threshold.
Finally this study discusses the impacts of climate changes and explores the improvement and adaptation strategies such as detention ponds, dams and other river dredging and moisture. These strategies are all able to meet the mitigation effect and can help setup future flood management measures and help prioritize the funding allocations for developing systems and infrastructure. These improvements can also appropriately increase regional resistance to waterlogging disasters, rationalize the the allocation of resources. The study suggests the most economical engineering and non-engineering methods to reduce the impact of flood disasters. We also hope that this study would provide the relevant organizations as a reference for future mitigation planning.

並列關鍵字

Climate Change ； Flood Disaster ； loss assessment ； TLAS Taiwan Model ； Strategy of adaptation ； Inundation

參考文獻

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