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  • 學位論文

產品碳足跡計算不確定性分析之研究

A Study on the Uncertainty of Product Carbon Footprinting

指導教授 : 胡憲倫

摘要


近年來,由於氣候變遷議題被各界關注,使得量化溫室氣體的碳足跡(Carbon Footprint)計算更受重視,國內外也開始倡導於產品外標示碳標籤;其目的是希望消費者能以碳足跡為比較基礎,做出減緩溫室效應衝擊等有利於環境的選擇。然而,對於以碳足跡計算所利用的生命週期評估(Life Cycle Assessment)方法而言,不同的計算方法所得到的結果相去甚遠,例如:使用不同的軟體計算,或是計算方法使用EIO-LCA/PLCA(Economic input-output life cycle assessment/Process life cycle assessment)等,這也說明碳足跡計算過程中有許多不確定性(Uncertainty)。 在實務上無論是「生命週期評估」或是「產品碳足跡計算」之不確定性,常常是被忽略而不考慮的,然而,在ISO 14064-1 (2006)及ISO/CD 14067-1 (2010)中,皆有要求需納入不確定性評估的描述與結果;對於「不確定性」量化方法之選擇中,亦有要求應選擇與使用可合理降低不確定性,且產生準確的、一致的及再現性結果的量化方法。顯見產品碳足跡計算結果,若想要具有公信力且不被質疑,不確定性分析仍是有其必要性的。 由於產品碳足跡之不確定性因子甚多,若要進行完整的不確定性分析與量化,在實際執行上有相當的困難度,且在多數情形下僅「參數不確定性」是在能力可行之範圍內。因此,本研究透過問卷調查方式,來瞭解運用LCA軟體工具計算產品碳足跡計算時,其參數不確定性的人為影響因素。並利用描述性與分析性的統計分析方法,結合蒙地卡羅模擬(Monte Carlo Simulation),來嘗試分析與量化產品碳足跡計算人為因素的參數不確定性(Parameter Uncertainty)。 本研究藉由獨立樣本t檢定與單因子變異數分析,瞭解不同背景特徵對於產品碳足跡計算結果與回收樣本之正確機率之差異性;並利用複迴歸分析方式來做敏感性分析,了解影響產品碳足跡計算的敏感性因子之背景特徵為何;最後,透過蒙地卡羅模擬,來觀察模擬結果及量化產品碳足跡計算結果的系統性誤差,使本研究可將產品碳足跡計算之參數不確定性的系統偏差量化成數字,以校正其系統偏差。希望能提供台灣業者在作產品碳足跡計算之不確定性分析時,有相關作法之參考與建議。

並列摘要


In the past few years, political actions and media reporting gain public attention to climate change issues and bring the carbon footprinting into spotlight. Moreover, product carbon labeling is becoming popular domestically and worldwide as they seek to provide carbon footprints information to assist consumers comparing different products and making environmental-consciously purchasing decision. However, there are wide discrepancies in the results of carbon footprinting when applying LCA and other methodologies. It shows that many pathways and sources throughout the calculation process may create uncertainties. While ISO 14064-1 (2006) and working draft of ISO 14067-1 (2010) require to assess all types of uncertainty, in practice the uncertainties of Life Cycle Assessment and Product Carbon Footprinting are usually disgarded and ignored. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an uncertainty analysis for obtaining credible and unquestionable carbon footprint calculation results. There are various uncertain factors in calculating product carbon footprint; and, it is hard to conduct a complete uncertainty analysis and to quantify it. In most cases, the parameters uncertainty is the only part that can be controlled. Thus, this study tries to quantify the uncertainty of product carbon footprinting by using life cycle assssment tool. With the emphasis on quantifying the parameter uncertainty due to human factor, via questionnaire investigation this study adopts Monte Carlo Simulation technique to analyze and quantify those uncertainties. Based on the results from the independent Sample T Test and ANOVA, the differences between carbon footprinting results and respondants with different background can be realized. Furthermore, the Multiple-Regression-Analysis was adopted to do the sensitivity analysis and to identify the most sensitive factors. Finally, through the Monte Carlo Simulation the systematic error can be observed and quantified and to be used as a correction for parameter uncertainty in the product carbon footprinting.

參考文獻


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